The long wait is finally over, college football is back.
The seven-game slate on Saturday features a pair of ranked opponents, an FBS-newbie, and multiple games with heat indexes flirting with 100 degrees.
Let’s unpack a couple of plays that present value to bettors.
Notre Dame vs. Navy (Ireland)
Recommendation: Under 49 points
The clock will no longer stop after first downs this season until the final two minutes of each half.
This can strip three to five minutes out of a game, particularly when two run-heavy teams face off against one another.
Navy’s new head coach Brian Newberry brought on Grant Chestnut from Kennesaw State to revamp their triple-option.
Chestnut was a play-calling wizard at the FCS level, helping the Owls finish in the top three of ground attacks in six of the last seven years.
He’ll be incorporating tight ends into the offense and sprinkling in more pass attempts.
Those likely will be short throws in the flats and crossing patterns that will force the defense to defend the entire width of the field.
Navy finished second in time of possession last season, and if these new wrinkles help it improve its mediocre third-down numbers (38.33 percent, 68th in 2022), the Mids could play keep away from the Irish.
Speaking of Notre Dame, the Irish have a new offensive coordinator and quarterback for their opener at Aviva Stadium.
Sam Hartman transferred in from Wake Forest after a prolific career leading Dave Clawson’s offense (127 career TDs).
Gerad Parker takes over playcalling duties after a far less successful stint at West Virginia.
As the Mountaineers’ offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021, WVU finished 82nd and 88th in scoring offense, respectively.
Parker did lean on his running game in Morgantown, turning Leddie Brown into a certified bell cow in 2021.
Brown averaged 22 touches per game while finding the end zone 14 times.
I foresee a similar situation playing out as Parker relies on his gifted offensive line and Audric Estime.
The Midshipmen return nine starters from a defense that finished fourth in the nation last season in rushing yards allowed.
And critically, they allowed just 11 runs of 20 yards or more (29th).
That should translate to longer, sustained drives for Notre Dame, and thanks to the new clock rules a shortened game should result in the under paying out in Ireland.
UMass at New Mexico State
Recommendation: NMSU -7
You need to know two things about this game.
The first is that UMass has been an auto-fade team for years, posting a 3-37 record straight up and a ghastly 13-27 mark against the spread at the window since 2019.
The second note here is that New Mexico State finally has found its quarterback.
Land of Enchantment legend Diego Pavia is a homegrown star.
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The Albuquerque native went the JUCO route, won a national title with the New Mexico Military Institute, and exploded on the scene last year scoring 13 total touchdowns in his final three starts, which included him nabbing Quick Lane Bowl MVP honors.
At quarterback, UMass is countering with former blue-chip recruit Taisun Phommachanh.
He will be throwing into a Jerry Kill defense that held UMass to 13 points last season when these teams met in Amherst.
This is a Minutemen offense that finished dead last in scoring two of the last three years, so they’ll need to walk before they run.
New Mexico State’s defense finished 19th in passing yards allowed in 2022 while limiting big plays.
In terms of opponents hitting plays of 20-plus yards, the Aggies ranked seventh nationally.
With savvy transfer additions, including Penn State’s Jamari Buddin at linebacker, I foresee more of the same from NMSU.