Shohei Ohtani’s injury won’t prevent him from receiving historic contract
Even playing half his all-world game for now, Shohei Ohtani will be the biggest free agent ever.
He surpasses Alex Rodriguez, whose $252 million Rangers deal represented exactly double the biggest sports contract back in 2000-01 (Kevin Garnett, $126M). Ohtani’s deal should still start at double A-Rod’s first free-agent deal — yes, $500M-plus — even if he can’t pitch until 2025.
There are lots of questions now that he has a torn UCL, but the biggest question remains: Who’ll sign the 21st century Babe Ruth?
But before we get to that, let’s clear something up.
I’ve seen speculation he’ll have to take a one-year deal now. The one-year deal makes zero sense, even/especially if he can’t pitch in 2024. Even if he can’t pitch in 2024, he’s still easily the best hitter in 2023 (he leads in 16 categories!), one of the best competitors ever and a marketing sensation who’s very likely to be back pitching by ’25. Don’t forget Aaron Judge likely could have gotten $400M-plus from the Giants or Padres — two teams expected to be involved here — so $500M should still be an easy get.
Ohtani doesn’t appear to be about money, but he remains primed to break the bank.
As for the team, here’s our official odds board …
1. Dodgers
The one thing Ohtani’s said is he wants to win, and no team wins more consistently. Ohtani is thought to like Southern California (who beyond Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t?), and it’s hard to imagine his alleged preference for a smaller city will discourage him from moving 45 miles up I-5. One reason LA may draw a line: They already have a great TV deal and basically sell out.
Odds: 2-1
2. Padres
“There’s no way they can afford him,” one rival exec claimed. But of course, did anyone think they could afford decade deals for Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado (twice)?
Odds: 7-1
3. Angels
Some rivals are assuming the Angels have no chance since they haven’t made the playoffs while paying Ohtani a fraction his worth. But word is he likes it there — he lives in Newport Beach — and also appreciates their willingness to accommodate his two-way stardom from the start.
Odds: 12-1
4. Red Sox
They have the wherewithal and the opportunity to make up for the loss of Mookie Betts, if they choose. Some believe the alleged West Coast preference is overstated.
Odds: 14-1
5. Rangers
Word is they are “doing a lot of work on it.” They did make it as a finalist last time, and their future looks better now, thanks to their willingness to spend (and wise choices). Would he go to an Angels rival?
Odds: 15-1
6. Mets
They could outbid anyone, and though Ohtani hasn’t seemed especially interested in money, he does have a big agency (CAA) and there is the players’ union. Of course, being in Steve Cohen tax territory means a $50M annual salary actually costs $105 million.
Odds: 18-1
7. Cubs
They were one of the seven finalists last time (Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Padres, Rangers and Angels) and have the revenue.
Odds: 20-1
8. Mariners
Ohtani spent two winters there, though folks think that’s due to his trainer. If legacy matters, some wonder whether Ichiro Suzuki’s great history there could be a deterrent.
Odds: 25-1
9. Giants
The Giants have money left from failed pursuits of Judge and Carlos Correa. Tough park for powerful lefty hitters, however.
Odds: 30-1
10. Yankees
Ohtani is said to have told the Yankees last time that though he loves the organization, he couldn’t see himself in a big city.
Odds: 50-1
11. Field
It’s hard to imagine the other 20 stepping up. As one rival put it, “We know he’s not going to Kansas City.” (unless he likes BBQ of course).
Odds: 7-1
