Few things are better than a perfectly textured cookie. Just the right amount of soft combined with the just the right amount of crunch along with just the right taste.
Even if that perfect cookie includes all of those things, if it crumbles in your hands before it makes it to your mouth, how much did you actually enjoy it?
Fantasy running backs are a lot like those perfect cookies. They’re a tasty treat to nab in your draft, as long as they don’t crumble. And they can crumble in so many ways — injury, poor performance, coaching situation, timeshares, etc.
Most RBs in today’s NFL are fragile fantasy assets because of one, or a combination of, those or other factors. So all of them are somewhat risky. The best defense against the crumbling cookie syndrome is to build depth. And if you’re building depth, that means you’re adding RBs later in the draft.
Whispering: Psst. Did you know it helps if you hit on those later-round RBs? Spoiler alert: It does.
What you’re looking for is talent and opportunity, but mostly opportunity. Like D’Andre Swift with the Lions, you can have all the talent in the world, but if you don’t get a decent quantity of work or quality touches, it doesn’t matter much how good you are.
Fantasy Football DVQ Explainer
Hop out of the pool, unpack your vacation suitcase, boot up your laptop and get ready, because fantasy football season is back.
The Fantasy Madman has returned with the latest iteration of his DVQ.
The Draft Value Quotient is a player rating system that assigns one universal number for every player. This value projects the point in the draft at which a player’s projected production will match the estimated draft pick value.
Since there is a wider separation among production at the top, so too is there a wider gap between DVQ values at the top of the rankings.
The player projections takes into account playing time, expected use/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance and injury history. The DVQ measures these projections against a player’s schedule and factors in positional depth and value above replacement.
These ratings are updated regularly.
Speaking of Swift, now he is on an explosive Eagles offense. What does that mean for his fantasy value?
Well, many are worried about the accompanying addition of Rashaad Penny, and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell is making news as the primary RB in camp.
Swift is going around the seventh round in drafts. On a team with a great offense, with coaching good enough to guide them to a Super Bowl last season, we expect the best players to get the best opportunity, so we love Swift in this draft spot despite the competition for touches.
But we have others in that range we like. The Broncos’ Javonte Williams is on his way back from a Week 4 ACL tear last season. He has a similar ADP to Swift. Is there risk? Sure, but you can also grab backup Samaje Perine two rounds later as insurance.
But there is another back we like even better. David Montgomery is no longer in Chicago, clearing a path to playing time for Khalil Herbert, whose 5.7 yards per carry last season were tops among all RBs. Sure, Justin Fields will vulture some touchdowns, but the threat of Fields will also open some running lanes for Herbert.
Somehow, Herbert has been lasting until rounds 7-10. He is easily our favorite later-round RB target.
There’s a few others we think offer good value for their draft cost. James Cook is in line to be the lead guy in the Buffalo backfield. A lead RB on a great offense in the seventh round? We like that better than Swift, considering Cook has less competition.
The Saints’ Alvin Kamara is dropping after his three-game suspension was revealed, but if he makes it to the sixth or seventh round, he’s another great find.
Travis Etienne sometimes slips into the fourth round. We love getting him there, because we have high expectations for the Jaguars offense this season.
We’re also not shy about taking Jonathan Taylor. There are a lot of questions surrounding the Colts, but he has a good offensive line, a running threat at quarterback who will demand defensive attention, is a year removed from being easily the top fantasy RB, and is playing for a contract. Get that in the late second round? Absolutely.
And we are higher on the Steelers’ Najee Harris than most. We didn’t like the fact he reportedly was dealing with plantar fasciitis heading into last season, and his performance echoed that type of issue — a shadow of his top-three RB showing in 2021. Word is he is looking much sharper in camp this season, and with a season of experience under the belt of QB Kenny Pickett, the offense shouldn’t struggle quite as much this year.
But just remember, whichever RBs you manage to grab, be gentle. You don’t want those cookies crumbling in your hands.
