Welcome back for another Friday breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.
We have 16 (!) baseball games on tap today thanks to the postponement in Cleveland yesterday.
We will ignore the KC-CHC game and Game 1 of DET-CLE to make sure you have ample time to get your PP cards submitted.
Everything else starts at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.
Spencer Strider more than 8.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Strider may be hitting a “wall” of sorts as he has surpassed last year’s innings total (131.2), which means he is at an all-time high for innings pitched in a season.
The Braves figure to lean on him heavily into a deep playoff run still this season, so he needs to find a way to work through some possible fatigue.
His last two starts have been a bit lackluster in the strikeout department.
He allowed six runs to the Pirates and recorded only three strikeouts, and then he issued four walks against only six strikeouts against the Mets.
I have no doubt we are in for a rebound performance soon, and I think it comes today against San Francisco.
The Giants have struck out at the 4th-highest rate (24.8%) in MLB this season, and they rate as a below average offense versus right-handed pitching (96 wRC+).
We are getting a slight discount on this projection due to his last two performances, as we have seen Strider with a 9.0 or 9.5 projection multiple times this season.
He remains the best strikeout artist in baseball with a 37.9% strikeout rate and 19.6% swinging strike rate on the season.
Ignore the last two outings and lock in more than 8.0 strikeouts for Strider.
Andre Jackson less than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Yes, Jackson has an above average 25% strikeout rate on the season.
And yes, he faces the Twins who have struck out at the highest rate (26.9%) in baseball this season.
But he threw a season-high (minors included) 79 pitches in his last outing against the Reds and still only recorded five strikeouts.
I am attacking the short leash here. I think we see a maximum of 85 pitches in this spot.
Additionally, the Twins (despite their high strikeout rates) are an above average offense with plenty of power.
They own a 104 wRC+ on the season, and they rank 6th with a .178 ISO.
Jackson has allowed over 1.71 HR/9 and has surrendered an 11.5% barrel rate this season. He could find himself in trouble early and often in this one.
If the Twins can get to him, we may see his somewhat limited pitch count escalating quickly.
I see him with a short outing in this one and finishing with less than five strikeouts.
Peter Lambert less than 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Lambert is another pitcher with a short leash.
He has made just six starts this season, but I will throw out his first one since he only threw 45 pitches while he transitioned from the bullpen to a starting role.
He has averaged just 80 pitches per start in those five starts he made as a fully stretched-out starter.
He has recorded more than 3.5 strikeouts in just two of those five starts, and both of them came on the road.
Home/Road splits rarely matter to me, but one of the few exceptions is when a pitcher calls Coors Field “home”.
Coors is of course the best hitters park in baseball. It drastically reduces strikeout rates thanks to the high altitude and thin air creating less movement for pitchers.
Lambert gets a decent matchup against the White Sox, but he owns just a 19.8% strikeout rate this season.
Combine the relatively limited pitch count for Lambert, the below average strikeout rate, and the ballpark/altitude, and we have a recipe for a limited number of strikeouts today.
I think Lambert records less than 3.5 strikeouts against the White Sox.
Sandy Alcantara less than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Over his last four starts, Alcantara has somewhat returned to last year’s form when he won the NL Cy Young Award.
He has two complete games and another 8-inning performance in that time, yet he has racked up just 29 strikeouts in 32.0 innings.
At his best, Alcantara is absolutely an elite starting pitcher.
But even then, he is still something closer to a league-average strikeout pitcher.
Overall this season, he has been significantly below average in the strikeout department (20.8% strikeout rate).
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Today he faces the Dodgers, who are one of the best offenses in baseball (4th with a 115 wRC+).
They are both powerful (2nd with a .196 ISO) and patient (2nd with a 10.4% walk rate), and they strike out well below league average (22nd with a 21.6% strikeout rate).
This all sounds like a recipe to drive up Alcantara’s pitch count and force him from the game earlier than usual.
