Betting on the NFL Most Valuable Player market can be fun as long as you understand going in that it’s a quarterback award.
Since 2000, 19 of the 24 winners have been signal-callers and a non-QB hasn’t won since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
With that in mind, one quarterback is checking a lot of boxes to win MVP entering his third year which is why the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence is the bet to make at 18/1 (5.2 percent implied probability) at Bet365.
Although Lawrence isn’t considered a top-five contender for the award based on betting odds, all signs are pointing up.
| 2023 NFL MVP odds |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes +550 |
| Joe Burrow +650 |
| Josh Allen +750 |
| Justin Herbert +1100 |
| Jalen Hurts +!200 |
| Lamar Jackson +1400 |
| Aaron Rodgers +1600 |
| Trevor Lawrence +1800 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +2000 |
| Dak Prescott +2000 |
| Justin Fields +2200 |
Jacksonville is the odds-on favorite (-155, 60 percent implied probability) to win the AFC South division and has the potential to have the best record in the conference.
That is key as every MVP winner since 2016 has been on a team that had or shared the best conference record.
Getting some easy wins in the AFC South should only help to propel Lawrence’s MVP candidacy.
The Jaguars went 4-2 in the division in 2022 and every other team has glaring weaknesses entering the season.
The Colts are starting over at quarterback, the Titans’ roster has regressed despite adding receiver DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans still may be overmatched as they build back up from the basement.
It’s a very real possibility that the Jaguars will go 6-0 in the division in 2023.
Another factor boding well for Lawrence is having another offseason in head coach Doug Pederson’s system.
As much as Pederson has been dining out on the “Philly Special” play call from the Super Bowl, the fact remains he has a track record of being a quarterback whisperer.
In 2017, Eagles QB Carson Wentz was the presumed MVP favorite before tearing his ACL versus the Rams in Week 14.
Pederson then guided perennial backup Nick Foles on the most improbable run to victory over the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
Now, Pederson’s influence looks undeniable on Lawrence, who saw his stats improve across the board in 2022.
The long-haired Lawrence finished ninth in total passing yards and eighth in touchdown passes last year while, most importantly, cutting down on dumb turnovers.
He led the NFL in interceptions in his rookie year with 17 and got that down to eight in 2022.
A strong TD-to-INT ratio goes a long way with MVP voters.
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Complimenting Lawrence in his potential MVP campaign are elite skill players such as wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, along with one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league, Travis Etienne.
The defensive attention to those three could give Lawrence another element to exploit: He ran for five touchdowns in 2022, sixth among all quarterbacks.
Lawrence is a great starting point if you’re betting on NFL MVP markets, but it may be best to find two or three quarterbacks who you think have a legitimate shot at winning the award and investing in each to widen your net.
If you want to take a wait-and-see approach with the Jaguars, you’ll know by Week 2, when the Chiefs come to Jacksonville, whether Lawrence and the Jaguars are for real.
If you decide to wait, however, and Lawrence has a great game, the 18/1 odds will be long gone.