I often struggle with projecting the Nationals’ and Phillies’ offenses.
Those teams have hard-hitting players up and down the lineups, but both are prone to slumps.
I don’t expect any problems with offense on Thursday, however.
Not with the scheduled starting pitchers.
The Nationals will start Patrick Corbin, the worst starting pitcher in MLB over the past few years.
Nationals vs. Phillies pick
He’s on pace to lead the majors in earned runs for the third straight season, and he has allowed 35 over his past 47 ²/₃ innings (5.48 ERA).
The Phillies will start Aaron Nola, who fluctuates between a Cy Young contender and a clown every month.
He struggled with fastball velocity in the early season, but has solved that issue.
Unfortunately, it’s one step forward, two steps back for Nola, as his secondary command has been rubbish recently.
Nola has a 5.64 ERA over his past five starts and an ERA close to 5.00 since June started.
Neither starting pitcher should get help on Thursday, considering these are two bottom-10 defenses by Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved metric.
Even worse, the wind is projected to be blowing straight out to center field at around 8 mph at first pitch.
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Any long fly balls allowed will be trouble.
Four of the previous five meetings between the Nationals and Phillies entering Wednesday had cashed the over.
I don’t expect run prevention to be an issue on Thursday, so I’ll bank on more of the same.
The pick: Nationals vs. Phillies over 9 runs (-105, FanDuel)