When betting on season-long NFL markets, identifying a decent buy-low spot in the offseason is crucial for long-term success and profitability.
One team that may fit that criteria is the Atlanta Falcons.
The Dirty Birds have been a popular investment this offseason, with bettors flirting with them to win the NFC South, make the playoffs or go over their 8.5-win total.
One Falcons-related wager bettors should also heavily consider is a bounce-back by third-year tight end Kyle Pitts.
Sportsbooks are offering markets on which players will have 1,000 or more receiving yards, and Bet365 lists Pitts at +400 (20 percent implied probability) to reach that milestone.
Pitts’ second season in the NFL was a disappointment by most standards.
Even with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, he would’ve been on pace for another 1,000-yard season in 2022, but pulled a hamstring in Week 4.
After recovering, Pitts ended up tearing his MCL in Week 11 and missed the rest of the season.
Pitts played just 10 games and finished with a minuscule 28 catches, 356 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
For a journeyman NFL tight end, that would be a decent season, but for the 2021 fourth-overall pick, it was a catastrophe.
Compared to his rookie season, it was night and day for Pitts’ yardage production.
In 2021, Pitts finished with 1,026 receiving yards on only 68 receptions (15.1 ypc), while trying to catch passes from a nearly mummified Matt Ryan, who has since retired.
He made the Pro Bowl and joined Mike Ditka (1961) as the only tight ends to have more than a thousand yards receiving as a rookie.
Even in an injury-filled 2022 campaign, what was undeniable was Pitts’ ability to get down field.
He was fourth among all tight ends in total air yards in 2022 (816) despite playing just 10 games.
The stat measures the total yards run by a player when he is targeted before he catches the ball or it falls incomplete.
The three tight ends who finished ahead of him — Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson — all played at least 16 games.
The Falcons are a team on the rise with the addition of running back Bijan Robinson, the No. 8-overall pick this year, along with second-year receiver Drake London.
Those two weren’t on the 2021 edition of the Falcons when Pitts had his most success, but should only help him to see more man coverage on passing downs than he has seen since he was a Florida Gator.
The elephant in the room is the development of quarterback Desmond Ridder.
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Pitts and Ridder have yet to start a game together, but the second-year quarterback can’t possibly be worse than Mariota, who ranked 38th among all quarterbacks to play at least four games in completion percentage and throwing accuracy (60.1 percent).
Ridder, in only four games as a rookie, had a higher completion percentage (63.7 percent) and more passing yards per game.
Based on league-average quarterback projections and Pitts playing at least 16 games, his odds to have 1,000+ receiving yards should be closer to +185 (35 percent implied probability).
The reasons we’re getting inflated odds at +400 are question marks on Ridder and Pitts’ recent injury history.
Those factors, while slightly concerning, shouldn’t be enough to dissuade you from investing in someone who has been touted as the NFL best tight end prospect ever.
The pick: Kyle Pitts 1,000 yards receiving (+400, Bet365)