It’s been a good couple of weeks for the Monday PrizePicks article.
We have nailed seven of the last eight picks and hope to do more of the same this evening.
There are 10 MLB games on the schedule, and they all start at 6:40 PM ET or later, which means we have plenty of projections to choose from on PrizePicks.
I’ve narrowed it down to my favorite four picks of the slate.
Charlie Morton more than 7.0 strikeouts
Morton’s numbers have dipped a bit this season, but he still owns a 3.57 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24%.
He has regularly recorded eight or more strikeouts in games this season and draws a strikeout-friendly matchup against the Angels at home.
This is an offense with the sixth-highest K rate against right-handed pitching this season, and every single batter in their projected lineup has a K rate of at least 21%.
Morton should be able to tally up the strikeouts quickly in this one, especially if his offense gives him some breathing room with a few early runs.
Ronald Acuna more than 1.5 total bases
I’m a fan of all things Braves this evening.
They are at home and facing Griffin Canning, who relies on strikeouts for the majority of his success.
When batters do make contact, they tend to perform well, as Canning has given up a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.
Acuna is one of the best hitters in baseball, boasting a .426 wOBA, a .241 ISO, and a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Marcus Stroman more than 4.5 strikeouts
We are getting a very enticing projection on Storman this evening for two reasons – he has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in each of his last two starts and the Reds have been on fire at the plate over the last few weeks.
I’m trusting the long-term numbers here and like the spot for Stroman at home with the wind blowing in from right field at Wrigley.
I’m hoping Stroman can be a little more aggressive with the helping wind and he’s facing a Reds offense that is loaded with potential strikeouts.
Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Joey Votto, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson all have K rates over 27% against right-handed pitching.
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Ryne Nelson less than 17.5 pitching outs
While Nelson has pitched at least six innings (18 outs) in four of his last six starts, it hasn’t been due to increased productivity.
In fact, he’s given up 18 earned runs during that stretch.
Teams have been swinging at pitches early in the count, which has allowed Nelson to pitch deeper into those games.
Overall, he owns a lackluster 5.04 xERA on the season. He has a tough matchup on the road against the Giants, who tend to take a lot of pitches.
In fact, check out some of these walk rates against right-handed pitching: Lamtone Wade (19%), Joc Pederson (14%), J.D. Davis (11%), Michael Conforto (13%), and Brandon Crawford (10%).