In the first of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season, Fantasy Insanity discusses the war-room game plan for the draft. Next week: tight ends.
The musical chairs of a typical NFL offseason always leaves some players sitting pretty from a fantasy perspective and others looking as if they have been left without a seat.
Matthew Stafford to the Rams worked out initially. A.J. Brown heading to Philadelphia was a smash hit. Deshaun Watson to the Browns, not so much.
Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins was slam dunk. Christian McCaffrey was still a game-changer once he landed in San Francisco. You couldn’t tell Davante Adams had switched uniforms just by looking at the stats.
So what should we expect from those changing teams this season? Will Jimmy Garropolo be the next Geno Smith? Can Aaron Rodgers mimic Tom Brady’s late-career greatness?
No, Jimmy G. won’t be as surprisingly productive as Smith was last season, but neither will Geno. Yet, both will be just, well, fine.
Fantasy Football DVQ Explainer
Hop out of the pool, unpack your vacation suitcase, boot up your laptop and get ready, because fantasy football season is back.
The Fantasy Madman has returned with the latest iteration of his DVQ.
The Draft Value Quotient is a player rating system that assigns one universal number for every player. This value projects the point in the draft at which a player’s projected production will match the estimated draft pick value.
Since there is a wider separation among production at the top, so too is there a wider gap between DVQ values at the top of the rankings.
The player projections takes into account playing time, expected use/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance and injury history. The DVQ measures these projections against a player’s schedule and factors in positional depth and value above replacement.
These ratings are updated regularly.
Yes, Rodgers we think will display shades of late-stage Brady, making him a great find at his current average draft position outside the top 100 but too much of a gamble, considering other options, if he creeps up draft boards.
But we think other NFL vagabonds can take more advantage of their nomadic adventures.
DeAndre Hopkins made a seemless transition, at least initially, when he was traded from the Texans to the Cardinals in 2020. Will he be able to do the same going from Arizona to Tennessee?
He transitions from Kyler Murray as his quarterback to Ryan Tannehill. We would consider that a downgrade, but only a slight one. And much of Hopkins’ fantastic career numbers were posted with lesser QBs than Tannehill.
We do worry a bit about Hopkins’ age, but even if slightly diminished he should have enough talent still in his reservoirs, plus a running game anchored by Derrick Henry, then at least adequate QB play, a solid WR2 or outside shot at a low-end WR1 upside makes him an attractive value in rounds 4-5.
Dalvin Cook seems to have multiple options — at least within the AFC East. And outside of Buffalo, which seems the most unlikely among division rivals, we don’t love any of them. The Jets and Patriots would virtually guarantee a time-share role. The Dolphins has a tad better outlook — since we think Cook would more easily relegate Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson to the sideline than he would with the backfield competition on the Jets and Pats.
David Montgomery made the inter-division move from the Bears to the Lions. But the more-talented D’Andre Swift couldn’t get traction in Detroit, and D-Mont will have to deal with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Did we mention the Lions haven’t had a stable fantasy RB since Barry Sanders?
Similarly, we’re not high on Devin Singletary in moving from a prolific Bills squad to a cumbersome unit in Houston, behind Dameon Pierce.
The Cowboys will be Brandin Cooks’ fifth team. He is just one year removed from a 1,000-yard season in Houston, so we like the boost he could get from QB Dak Prescott — especially in the rounds 8-9.
Odell Beckham Jr. is like the “Fast and Furious” film franchise: He just won’t go away, keeps coming back, and only occasionally is any good.
But here’s the thing: When healthy, and on a decent team, he has been solid throughout his career. Now, with Lamar Jackson as his QB, we’re expecting he can perform up to his short-lived Rams-level standards, making him a solid pick who often lasts until Round 10.
As for more bruising runners still on the market — Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette — or even the more versatile Kareem Hunt, it will depend on the landing spot, but it seems unlikely they will ever reclaim bellcow status. Plus, years are unkind to RBs, and that trio has a few on their ledger.
So sure, moving can be fun, but the new destination isn’t always better.