Shohei Ohtani is off the trade market now, but might Juan Soto take his place at the top?
Sources say that though the Padres still hope to buy, they are now listening on Soto plus star starter Blake Snell and star closer Josh Hader in case things go further south.
A trade of Soto remains unlikely, even more unlikely than deals involving free agents to be Snell and Hader, but everything is being considered for MLB’s unluckiest team (49-54 and 6 ½ out of the wild card despite a plus-51 run differential).
Soto isn’t a free agent until after next year, and the vast majority of contenders are focusing on pitching, too, which further complicates the chances for a Soto trade. The Yankees, searching since winter for a lefthanded hitting outfielder, are one team that fits Soto, though Cubs star Cody Bellinger or possibly Randal Grichuk remain the more likely option for a team still not ready to be extremely aggressive. (As of Thursday afternoon, the sides had not talked Soto.)
The Padres may reasonably believe there’s little hope of extending Soto, and many believe he wouldn’t mind returning to the East Coast, anyway. But a trade in winter or at next year’s deadline still seems more likely.
With Ohtani off the market, here’s the new list of buzz-worthy players this deadline (with trade chances).
1. Soto: Still a long shot. Chance to be traded: 10 percent.
2. Dylan Cease: One of four White Sox close to untouchable (Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn. Eloy Jimenez). Trade chances: 5 percent.
3. Nolan Arenado: He told us he wouldn’t be shocked but would be surprised. So would we. Trade chances: 5 percent.
4. Justin Verlander: He’s regained form, but the Mets would still have to pay some down to get back a decent prospect. Full no-trade clause complicates things. Trade chances: 15 percent.
5. Blake Snell: If the majors’ ERA leader becomes available, he will be the best starter out there. Trade chances: 20 percent
6. Marcus Stroman: Outside chance the hot Cubs go for it now. Trade chances: 75 percent.
7. Josh Hader: His trade a year ago upset the Brewers’ clubhouse. Trade chances: 20 percent.
8. Cody Bellinger: Back to stardom. Trade chances: 75 percent.
9. Max Scherzer: Some teams would take a chance he’d pitch better for them — if he’d accept a trade. Will not opt out, so it’s another $43.33M next year. Trade chances: 10 percent.
10. Jonathan India: The Reds don’t really want to move India, as he’s a key leader and provides terrific depth. Trade chances: 15 percent.
11. Jordan Montgomery: The Cardinals’ best pitcher would get a qualifying offer, but it’s hard to believe that’s reason to keep him. Trade chances: 80 percent.
12. Eduardo Rodriguez: Terrific pitcher, but opt-out complicates things. Trade chances: 65 percent.
13. David Bednar: The Pirates are listening on their All-Star closer with a 1.15 ERA, but it’s a long shot with three more years of control. Trade chances: 15 percent.
14. Jordan Hicks: Cardinals are working on an extension. Trade chances: 30 percent.
15. Mitch Keller: The Pirates are listening on him, too. Trade chances: 20 percent.
16. Mike Lorenzen: He’s topped off his All-Star season with a recent scoreless streak. Trade chances: 75 percent.
17. Jack Flaherty: Talented guy, and someone will hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Trade chances: 75 percent.
18. Jeimer Candelario: Candelario’s the Nationals’ key sale piece. Trade chances: 90 percent.
19. Lance Lynn: Teams are looking at his history more than his current ERA. Trade chances: 90 percent.
