Welcome back to another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!
There are two pitchers and a pair of hitters I’m taking a look at in the evening window of games.
Let’s dive in and check it out.
Kenta Maeda more than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Maeda has some control issues and doesn’t have a long leash since returning from injury.
None of that sounds good, however, he still has some pretty sweet swing-and-miss stuff in his toolbox.
The Twins pitcher has struck out 26% of hitters and will square off against a free-swinging Mariners club on Wednesday night.
Seattle has six batters in its projected lineup with 2023 strikeout rates north of 23% against right-handed pitchers.
Maeda leans on his slider the most and according to the RotoGrinders PlateIQ tool, some of these Mariners really struggle with contact against that pitch coming from a right-handed hurler.
I’m backing Maeda tonight in a favorable matchup.
Ryne Nelson less than 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Atlanta is the hottest and best team in baseball right now.
That’s a dangerous combination.
There’s a real chance Nelson gets lit up on Wednesday night as he enters play, yielding a .207 ISO, 48% hard-contact rate, and a 10% barrel rate.
Nelson leans on his fastball roughly 50% of the time.
While the Braves typically have some strikeouts baked into the lineup, they’re an excellent fastball-hitting team.
Via PlateIQ, five of the projected Braves starters have K rates against fastballs (specifically) less than 20%.
In fact, there isn’t a Braves hitter with a hard-contact rate less than 57% against right-handed fastballs.
This could get ugly before Nelson even has a crack at four strikeouts.
Bryce Harper more than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
It’s been a slow start for Harper following an early-season injury, but he’s finally finding his footing in July.
Harper has tallied more than this number in six of 10 games this month and draws a favorable matchup against Milwaukee’s Colin Rea on Wednesday night.
Rea, a righty, has struck out less than 20% of batters and has given way to a .250 ISO with a .362 wOBA against left-handed hitters in 2023.
Despite the slow start to his season, Harper is still hitting balls hard and owns a very respectable barrel rate.
Last season, he owned a .282 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and it feels like he’s finally getting healthy this year.
I’m leaning toward the long-term data here now that Bryce is looking more like himself.
Miguel Cabrera less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
It feels good to write something about a legend.
Father Time catches up to everyone, but we could still use Cabrera’s services in this matchup on Wednesday.
Cabrera clearly does not mash the ball like he used to, but he catered his approach to do anything necessary in order to remain relevant in the bigs at his age.
Miguel has struck out just 17% of the time against left-handed pitchers this season.
Heck, he ranks 21st on the MLB hits list for a reason.
Lucky for him, opposing southpaw Ryan Yarbrough is striking out a measly 12% of RHB in 2023.
Yarbrough may not pitch too deep into this game, but Kansas City offers one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
I envision Cabrera getting us to the middle/late innings of this game (at worst) without a blemish and things could come down to his last at-bat against a new pitcher.
There’s always a chance he gets lifted for a pinch runner before then too.