The 2023 Wimbledon men’s semifinals are set and it must be said that the bookmakers did a terrific job setting this tournament up.
Although there were some surprising names in the quarterfinals such as Roman Safiullin and Chris Eubanks, the final four players remaining (Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev) were the four shortest prices entering the tournament.
While the Djokovic vs. Sinner semifinal seems relatively straightforward from a handicapping perspective, the showdown between Alcaraz and Medvedev has a lot more layers to it.
Let’s break it down.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev pick
(10:30 p.m. Eastern)
Despite being the fourth-favorite to win the tournament before Round 1, it is a bit surprising to see Medvedev in the final four at the All England Club.
The 27-year-old Russian had never been beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon before this year and wasn’t in great form after losing in Round 1 at Roland Garros as the No. 2 seed and then going 2-2 in his tune-up matches for Wimbledon on the grass courts of Halle and Hertogenbosch.
But the draw was kind to the 2021 U.S. Open champion — he has yet to play a seeded opponent at the All England Club — and that’s allowed Medvedev to sneak up on people and make a deep run without much pushback.
Medvedev needed five sets to beat Eubanks in the quarterfinal, but he has only dropped three sets total through his first five matches at Wimbledon.
Alcaraz’s draw, on the other hand, has been anything but soft.
The World No. 1 had no issues in the first two rounds, but had a tricky third-round showdown against World No. 28 Nicolas Jarry and then took out the resurgent former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the Round of 16.
Alcaraz defeated No. 6 seed Holger Rune in straight sets in the quarterfinal and although he needed to win a first-set tiebreaker against Rune, the Spaniard took over the contest from that point and made relatively light work of a very dangerous opponent.
Although Alcaraz has played some elite competition to this point, Medvedev should provide a different kind of test compared to what he’s seen so far.
Jarry, Berrettini and Rune are all most comfortable on the front foot and play attacking tennis, while Medvedev is one of the best defensive players in the sport.
That style should at least give him a platform to build on against Alcaraz, who is still just 20 years old and thus can struggle to remain composed mentally when things get a bit rocky.
Against most opponents Medvedev’s magic defensive work is enough to get the match on his terms.
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His serve is terrific, so he normally just needs one break to run away with a set, but Alcaraz is a different beast.
The Spaniard is close to Medvedev’s level when it comes to defending, which should limit the amount of cheap points that the Russian is usually able to create with his monster serve.
Alcaraz was able to hold elite servers Jarry and Berrettini to modest success on their first serve on a grass court and that tells us he should be able to handle what Medvedev throws his way.
Medvedev can be a frustrating opponent for any player in the world, but this surface and the conditions — this is Medvedev’s first match on Centre Court this tournament — should favor the Spaniard.
The Russian should have enough moments to nick a set, but I like a punt on Alcaraz to win this semifinal in four sets at +280 (BetMGM).