In the season we imagined, the Mets would have been trying to jump the trade market to obtain Aroldis Chapman.
In the season that is transpiring, perhaps they should see the trade Friday of Chapman from the Royals to the Rangers as a call to also act early. Would dealing a player to a contender weeks before the Aug. 1 trade deadline markedly improve the return?
The Mets already have traded Eduardo Escobar to the Angels. But that was clarifying, since it unquestionably handed third base to Brett Baty. If the Mets were to follow the Chapman path and deal David Robertson, there is no obvious replacement at closer or a young arm they would want to test in the role. Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley would likely share the job.
With Edwin Diaz, not even wearing a brace on his right knee, playing catch in the outfield Saturday, but far from a return in 2023 (if he returns at all), dealing Robertson would remove the best asset from a problematic pen. It would basically be waving a surrender flag.
The Mets are not there yet. They continue to want to believe a game like Saturday, in which Justin Verlander pitched economically and dominantly, while Francisco Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor hit third-inning homers to highlight a 4-1 victory over the Giants, can be the trigger to a sustained positive run that would catapult them back into a playoff chase.
The Mets want to at least clear the draft next week before seriously deciding upon their trade deadline strategy. Considering the outlay in payroll this year, they are buying time to determine if there is a 1973 Ya Gotta Believe surge still possible.
But should they be patient?
One of the lies that the Mets could tell themselves most of this season was that the NL was not very good and it might not take a big win total to, say, secure the third wild card. But the Giants hold the third wild card at 46-37, a mirror to the Mets’ 37-46. That Giants mark projects to 90 wins.
Another potential lie is that this is going to be a buyer’s market. What if clubs in the disappointing bucket with the Mets continue along that path? Could San Diego, with its walk-year closer Josh Hader, St. Louis, with its walk-year fireballer Jordan Hicks, and Seattle, with its hyper-trader president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and a host of relievers, including closer Paul Sewald, be sellers? Should the idea be to get in the market before it gets cluttered and return value is lowered?
Also, Robertson, 38, is the second-oldest reliever in the majors (behind Atlanta’s Jesse Chavez). That has to raise concerns about injury between now and the deadline debasing his value.
But could the Mets really get considerably more by beginning to sell a month early, notably with Robertson? I asked four heads of baseball operations and one said definitely, one said probably and two said no. So, there is not even unanimity on this subject. One said they imagine Billy Eppler putting such a high price to act now on Robertson as to make a deal all but inconceivable.
Without indisputably deepening their prospect ranks, particularly their organizational pitching depth, the Mets probably will see if they have a “Hail Mary” run in them.
Still, it more and more seems the only way to salvage something from this miserable season is if the team with the most expensive roster ever can trade to build for the future. The Mets will have to decide the level of a sell-off. Would it just be walk-year players, such as Robertson, Ottavino (he has a 2024 player option), Raley (2024 club option), Carlos Carrasco, Mark Canha (2024 club option), Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach?
Would they try to discover what Max Scherzer and Verlander could fetch? Both have no-trade clauses, so they would have to agree to a relocation. Also, Scherzer has a player option for $43.33 million next season, while Verlander is owed the same amount in 2024 plus has a conditional $35 player option for 2025. Steve Cohen has said he would eat dollars to improve returns (as he did with Escobar). But how much would have to be assumed to tempt teams to bite on older players whose health and performance have come into question this year?
As one executive said: “Those guys aren’t Scherzer and Verlander any longer. They have the same names, but they are not the same pitchers.”
Could Jose Quintana (owed $13 million in 2024) do enough between whenever he returns from injury and the deadline to convince a contender to trade for him? Would the Mets open the door to talk Pete Alonso, who will be a free agent after next season?
The Mets would not enter a rebuilding mode. But Cohen has said he would not ignore reality if the Mets are not contenders this year. His fixation remains on finding ways to hasten the construction of a better farm system.
For now, we wait to see when and if the Mets concede and open serious conversations with real contenders. The Rangers aggressively landed Chapman a month before the deadline.
Can any suitor tempt the Mets to act early and decisively as well?
