Welcome back to another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday, where we’ll be taking a look at three pitchers and one-hitter.
We have one pitcher on a heater, another who is struggling, and a third who seems to be quite unpredictable.
Let’s dive in and find out more about these matchups.
MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks
Blake Snell more than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Snell sure is a wildcard.
My colleague Dave Potts said it best about Snell last week, “only Blake Snell beats Blake Snell.”
And lately, Snell hasn’t been beating himself.
There haven’t been any blowups or massive control issues.
Snell has posted three-straight impressive games with swinging-strike rates north of 18%.
Overall, he’s striking out an impressive 30% of hitters this season.
Snell has been leaning on his changeup much more across the last 30 days, which has proven to be very effective.
I think he continues this strong summer surge to eclipse this number against the Pirates.
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Cristian Javier less than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
What’s up with Javier?
A borderline ace that was known for striking out batters in bulk hasn’t struck out more than five batters in roughly six weeks.
There are some causes for concern.
Javier’s fastball velocity is down almost a full tick when comparing it across his last 40 starts dating back to the beginning of last season.
Additionally, over the last month, Javier almost entirely ditched his curveball.
Now, we have a pitcher with velocity issues who is essentially throwing just two pitches to professional hitters.
The Cardinals have been absolutely dreadful this season, but on paper, they are still a tough lineup to strike out for any pitcher – let alone one that has seemingly lost his stuff recently.
For those reasons, I like Javier to strike out less than five hitters on Wednesday.
Aaron Nola more than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Nola has become increasingly more unpredictable after each start this season.
I’m hopping on board tonight against the Cubs.
Nola often gets in trouble with fly balls, but RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth’s WeatherEdge tool indicates that Wrigley Field will not be a good homer-hitting environment for either team.
Nola is striking out just 23% of batters, but outside of a few Chicago hitters, this isn’t a very contact-friendly Cubs lineup.
Dating back to the start of last season, six projected Chicago batters have struck out at least 23% of the time.
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Anthony Santander more than 1.5 Total Bases
After a sluggish start to the 2023 season, Santander has been playing at an all-star level for the Orioles.
He’ll square off against Luke Weaver, who throws about 50% of fastballs to hitters while striking out just 14% of left-handed batters dating back to 2022.
Weaver is giving up an ISO worse than .200 with a 40% hard-contact rate against lefties.
Santander is a fantastic fastball hitter, owning a 53% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and a .248 ISO against that pitch against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season.
Santander and many of his Oriole friends checked out as strong players against Weaver on Wednesday.