Last Sunday, the Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.70 ERA) and Boston’s Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.78) dueled in a 3-2 Red Sox win.
I previewed that game and gave out the under.
My reasoning was both pitchers were performing better than their records indicated this season.
That turned out to be what happened Sunday, with Schmidt giving up just four hits and one run over 5¹/₃ innings and Bello allowing three hits and two runs in seven innings.
The two will square off again on Saturday, this time at Fenway Park.
Yankees vs. Red Sox pick
(7:15 p.m. Eastern)
Schmidt has allowed three runs or fewer in his five straight starts.
Amazingly, the Yankees are just 1-4 in those games, scoring a measly five runs in the four losses. Bello has given up three runs or fewer in six straight starts.
Overall, Bello has allowed more than three runs only twice in 10 starts this season.
He’s been one of the few bright spots in a Red Sox rotation that has struggled.
The two teams combined for only five runs in 10 innings in that game last Sunday, but I’m going the opposite way in the rematch.
This will be the second time in six days the lineups get to see these pitchers. I believe that favors the offense.
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Red Sox-Yankees has been known for fireworks, although four straight matchups had gone under heading into Friday.
I’ll go against the recent trend and bet we see some runs on Saturday.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction
The play: Over 9.5 runs (+100, Caesars Sportsbook)