After a sluggish start to the season and the Tampa Bay Rays looking like world-beaters, the tides have begun to turn.
The Yankees bullpen has been performing at an absurd level of late, and of course, Aaron Judge has back to being a one-man wrecking ball.
The time to buy on the Bronx Bombers is now as we approach June.
AL East Winner: Yankees (+450, FanDuel)
The Rays were never going to win 75 percent of their games. They were due for some regression.
However, this regression is getting coupled with injury. Jose Siri had a stint on the IL, but the pitching staff has been crushed.
Jeffrey Springs is out for the season, while Pete Fairbanks is battling a forearm injury, meaning a crucial top-end starter and back-end bullpen piece are currently in the hospital.
Meanwhile, Shawn Armstrong, Andrew Kittredge, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen are all currently on the IL.
The Rays are usually renowned for their pitching depth, but injury has brutalized that depth.
As a result, the Rays are struggling, putting up a 7-8 record over their past 15 games and seeing their division lead shrink to 2 ¹/₂ games entering Monday.
I think someone in the AL East will overtake the Rays, and I’m betting on the Yankees.
The Yanks are due for more positive regression.
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They’re 29th in BABIP (.269) and have an xwOBA 13 points higher than their actual wOBA (.330 and .317, respectively).
These Yankees should score more going forward.
Additionally, Carlos Rodon is coming back eventually, and he’ll be paired with AL Cy Young betting favorite Gerrit Cole to create one of the best one-two rotational punches in baseball.
I also like the improvements Domingo German is making (more secondary pitches, fewer fastballs, and better results).
Aaron Judge has been unstoppable since returning from injury.
He’s slashing .378/.491/.911 with seven home runs in 12 games since May 9.
He’s hitting everything over the wall and projects as the AL’s most devastating bat over the rest of the season.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA standings project the Yankees win the AL East 50.8 percent of the time as of May 22.
Given the Yankees’ surge and the Rays’ recent slump, I agree that the AL East feels like a coin flip between these two (no offense to the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Red Sox, but those teams project as much worse throughout a full season).
Yet, despite all this relevant information, the Yankees are listed as (+450) to win the AL East on FanDuel. That’s a great value bet.