The NFL schedule release day is always special in our hearts.
As diehard NFL bettors, this is the first taste of NFL wagers we’ve had in months, given that books have already dropped lines for Week 1 and many of the biggest games of the season.
Let’s look at some of those lines involving New York teams.
Maybe there’s early betting value. (Odds via FanDuel).
Week 1: Cowboys -2.5 at Giants
The Giants are fun, and it’s nice they retained their key pieces in the offseason (Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley).
It’s no mystery, however, that they overachieved last season.
The Giants boasted a negative point differential, finishing 29th in Defense DVOA and 22nd in Special Teams DVOA with only 7.2 Estimated Wins.
Brian Daboll is astounding, but head coaches can do only so much.
I also don’t love the Giants’ offseason additions or their draft, so I’m fairly low on them despite the talent on the roster and the coaching staff.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ underlying numbers were astounding last year.
They finished second in Defense DVOA while boasting 11.3 Estimated Wins behind a devastating pass rush, and the defensive core is back for 2023.
Sure, Dak Prescott has been shaky, but how much worse can he be than Jones?
And now, Brandin Cooks, who has recorded a 1,000-yard season in six of the past eight years, is with Dallas,
Projecting these two teams from a season-long perspective is tough.
But in Week 1, I’m buying the Cowboys can convert as road favorites.
Week 1: Bills -2 at Jets
Aaron Rodgers is the biggest question mark of the offseason. How will he perform with a change of scenery?
The Jets have a great receiving core, headlined by defending Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson.
The Jets also have an impressive defensive core, headlined by Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner.
Yet I feel like the market is overrating the Rodgers-to-Jets move. Rodgers was 11th in PFF’s passing grades and 16th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR last season.
He didn’t look like the Rodgers of old, even if the offensive core in Green Bay wasn’t ideal.
Meanwhile, the Bills are running back a core that was tops in Total DVOA and Estimated Wins last season.
Buffalo has its issues, but the talent is there.
It’s lame, but I want to fade both New York teams in Week 1. So, I’ll take the Bills in this matchup.
Dec. 25: Giants +7.5 at Eagles
While I’m not high on either New York team in Week 1, I think the Giants can compete against the Eagles on Christmas Day.
I’m relatively low on the Eagles.
I think they’re overvalued after 2022, when they ripped through the NFL’s easiest schedule (by opposing DVOA).
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So, while the Eagles are talented, their market value is too high.
Meanwhile, these high-spread games are where the Giants’ coaching advantage will come into play.
Daboll went 6-1 against the spread as a road underdog last season, failing to cover only against the Seahawks.
I’m not overly high on the Giants, but they have enough defensive talent and schematic advantages to keep up with an overvalued Eagles team.
So, I’m willing to take the Giants catching more than a touchdown here.