The Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken have traded convincing wins over the first four games of their NHL Playoff best-of-7 series.
But now the series heads back to Dallas as a best-of-3 and the betting market is siding with the Stars to get the job done.
Not only is Dallas a -190 favorite to win a pivotal Game 5 on Thursday night, but the Stars are sitting at -200 to take the series.
This is nothing new for the Kraken.
Seattle has been an underdog in all 11 games it played in the postseason so far and has posted a 6-5 record in that span.
Will Seattle upset the odds once again on Thursday night?
Kraken vs. Stars Game 5 prediction
(9:30 p.m. ET. TNT)
Even though three of the four games in this series so far have been decided by at least two goals and there have been a couple of blowouts, the big picture of Kraken vs. Stars is that things have been pretty tight at 5-on-5.
Seattle has outscored Dallas, 13-12, at even strength, but the Stars have slight advantages in shot attempts (202 to 201), expected goals (9.7 to 8.2), and high-danger scoring chances (46 to 35).
With things playing out that tight at 5-on-5, the games have really been decided by which team gets the better goaltending on a nightly basis.
You’d think Dallas would have a distinct advantage in that area with Jake Oettinger taking on Phillip Grubauer, but Oettinger has had a couple of uncharacteristic performances that have set his team back.
It’s more likely than not that he’ll be able to put those behind him and bounce back for the business end of the series, but Grubauer has been strong throughout the playoffs, which means the goalie battle isn’t a foregone conclusion.
The general consensus after Game 4 is that the Stars have wrestled back control of this series and ‘figured out’ the Kraken.
That kind of narrative will always pop up in a back-and-forth playoff series like this one.
Recency bias is a real thing and it does, from time to time, impact the betting market.
That seems to be the case here, as Seattle is sitting at a great price to win Game 5.
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The Kraken tick a lot of boxes you look for in an underdog.
They’re deep, they can get scoring from anywhere and they’re getting good goaltending at the moment.
Kraken vs. Stars Game 5 pick
Seattle Kraken +165 (BetRivers)