Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 prediction: NHL Playoffs odds, picks

The entire city of Toronto has been taken for a wild ride over the last couple of weeks.

Just 10 days after winning their first playoff series in 19 years on April 29, the Toronto Maple Leafs are down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers in Round 2.

It’s a massive shock to the system, and as hard as it is to believe, a loss on Wednesday night would undo all of the goodwill the Buds built up with their fanbase after beating Tampa Bay in Round 1.

All that said, the Leafs aren’t done yet. Toronto is a +700 long shot to come back and win the series, but they are a slight -120 road favorite in Game 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 prediction

(7 p.m. ET. ESPN)

The first three games of this series have patterned out in a peculiar fashion.

The Leafs were clearly the better team in Game 2 but ran into a hot goalie, while the curtain-raiser was pretty close to a 50/50 battle with Toronto coming alive late.

Either way, the two teams traveled to Florida with Toronto in a must-win spot, and the consensus feeling around the hockey world was that the Leafs would come out of the gates with their hair on fire.

That didn’t happen.

The Leafs were lackluster throughout Game 3 and were lucky to get to overtime, where they wilted in quick fashion.

An uninspiring loss in a must-win spot sent the team’s fanbase into a tizzy.

The media machine that follows the Leafs went into hyperdrive.

All the demons that the Maple Leafs thought they had vanquished were back.

And while all the talk in this series has surrounded the Maple Leafs, a lot of credit needs to go to the Panthers.

Florida was inconsistent for a large part of the regular season, but the Cats got hot at the right time and rode a 12-5-2 run down the stretch to get into the playoff mix, and they needed every bit of their 6-1-1 run in their last eight contests to get the last seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Cats were counted out against the record-setting Boston Bruins, but they fought back from a 3-1 series deficit to pull off a stunning result.

They carried that swagger into Round 2.

Florida’s aggressive forecheck is giving Toronto’s defense, which lacks foot speed, fits in its own zone, and the defense is doing a good job of bending and not breaking.

The Leafs have enough skill on their roster to blow out any team, but when you’re leaning on them physically and making it difficult to get to the good parts of the ice, they have trouble getting into any offensive rhythm.

The 5-on-5 numbers for this series are razor-thin.

The two teams have basically split the expected goals, shot attempts, and high-danger scoring chances, but Florida has an 8-5 edge on the scoreboard.

Nonetheless, it’s been tight at 5-on-5, which is a good thing for the Panthers.

Toronto has been one of the best teams in the NHL at tilting the ice for years, so the fact that the Cats are keeping pace with Toronto is a big plus since it felt like a given that the Leafs would be the stronger team at even strength.

There’s so much going on in this game off the ice that it’s hard to drown out the noise and try to find value.

Not only are the Leafs going to be under immense pressure, but they’ll start rookie Joseph Woll in the net after Ilya Samsonov was hurt in Game 3.

Woll has been strong in spot duty this season, but it’s anybody’s guess how this goes.

Toronto closed as a -150 favorite in Game 3, so just going by that (even with the goalie switch to Woll), you have a decent argument that the Leafs are the value side in this matchup.

However, if you think Toronto is worth a bet at -120, you may as well take a shot on the Buds to win the series at +700 or even the Stanley Cup at +2500.

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As for bets on Game 4, there are a couple of player props that should have some value.

William Nylander is catching heat for being held scoreless in this series, but he’s been all over the puck and is a good anytime goalscorer option.

Additionally, targeting Matthew Tkachuk’s linemates, Sam Bennett (+250) and Nick Cousins (+700), also makes sense. If you parlay all three of them together, it’s an 80/1 payday.