The most highly anticipated series of the NBA’s semifinal round has seen plenty of twists and turns through the first three games.
And oddsmakers are taking a fairly measured approach ahead of Game 4.
The Lakers are dealing as 2.5-point home favorites for Monday’s tilt, which comes just two days after their 30-point win over the Warriors to take a 2-1 series lead.
Will we see a similar outcome in this one, or will the defending champions deliver a counterpunch on the road?
Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.
Lakers vs. Warriors odds
(via BetMGM)
- Lakers -2.5 (-110), moneyline -145
- Warriors +2.5 (-110), moneyline +120
- O/U 228.5 (under -115)
Lakers vs. Warriors prediction and analysis
(10 p.m. ET on TNT)
This series has been an absolute heavyweight fight through the first three contests: the Lakers survived a late rally from the Warriors to steal Game 1, then Golden State answered with a 27-point home win before getting blasted by 30 points in Los Angeles two days later.
It was just the sixth time in the last 25 years that we’ve seen two teams trade wins of at least 25 points in back-to-back games in the same playoff series.
Three of them involved either LeBron James or Stephen Curry, and each of the last four instances saw a double-digit margin in the following game.
Three of those wins came courtesy of the team coming off a blowout win in its previous game.
And while it’s hard to predict such a wide margin for the Lakers here, one thing is obvious: Anthony Davis is a problem.
And the Warriors don’t seem to have any answers.
In Game 1, Davis posted a historic stat line of 30 points, 23 rebounds, five assists and four blocks to almost single-handedly guide his team to victory.
In Game 3, he dropped 25 points, 13 rebounds, and four blocks on 70 percent shooting with 12 trips to the free-throw line – a major subplot in this series.
Those games sandwiched a confounding effort in Game 2 when he scored just 11 points and attempted just 11 shots from the field, with one attempt from the charity stripe.
Unsurprisingly, the Warriors posted their best performance on both ends of the court in this series in an easy win.
Then Davis returned to his usual self in Game 3, though the betting market is showing even less confidence in the Lakers than they were before that contest – even after a 30-point win.
Are we really sure Davis will turn back into a pumpkin in front of his home crowd?
Golden State clearly has the talent to keep pace in this series, but this has been and continues to be a brutal matchup on paper.
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The Warriors have attempted 44 fewer free throws through three games and have been outscored 63-27 at the stripe.
That wouldn’t be as much of an issue if they were sizzling from 3-point range, but they’ve made just 55 of their 139 attempts from deep (39.6 percent) – barely better than their mark across the regular season (38.5 percent).
That isn’t enough to make up ground in this series, especially with Golden State shooting 59 percent on attempts inside 5 feet and an abysmal 28.6 percent on shots within 5-9 feet.
That’s a direct testament to Davis’ presence around the rim, and it spells some serious concerns for the Dubs if they can’t get to the line and aren’t knocking down 3-pointers at a prolific rate.
Meanwhile, when Davis is attacking on the other end, that’s all the Lakers’ offense needs to stay hot. If he’s not, Los Angeles has four other players who have scored at least 20 points in a game this postseason, and they should be well suited to support the cause at home.
Lakers vs. Warriors pick
- Lakers -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)