Experts from The Post and Action Network handicap Saturday’s 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Post time is approximately 6:57 p.m.
Vic Cangialosi
New York Post racing handicapper
1. Tapit Trice: Before we get started, it is important to note that not one “expert” had Rich Strike last year.
Fact is, half of us didn’t know he was in the race.
That said, this “expert” is hoping form holds this year — which means the Todd Pletcher trio will run well.
In Todd we trust, and Tapit Trice looks ready to handle the distance after rallying from out of the clouds to win the Blue Grass. Luis Saez will ensure a clean trip.
2. Kingsbarns: Will be the one to catch.
No traffic issues for Jose Ortiz if he breaks clean from the gate.
Not a lot of speed in here, so he should have his way on the lead.
Ran strong to the wire in the Louisiana Derby (which is just 1/16th shorter), and if Ortiz can set a moderate pace, he will be tough to reel in.
3. Forte: The morning-line favorite after winning six times from seven starts.
Similar style to Tapit Trice.
Looked beaten in the Florida Derby, but when Irad Ortiz Jr. called on him he dug in and nailed Mage at the wire. Tapit Trice appears to be getting better with each race.
Forte may have a difficult time outkicking his barn mate. Is the lemon dry? No. Think there’s enough juice to get up for a share.
Michael Leboff
Action Network racing handicapper
1. Tapit Trice: The common narrative around this Kentucky Derby is that there isn’t that much pace — at least on paper — in this field.
That should benefit Tapit Trice, who is a dynamite late runner and can seemingly conserve energy to chase down this field at the business end of the race.
Ridden by Luis Saez, Tapit Trice comes into the “Run for the Roses” with four wins on the spin and is worthy of his status as one of the favorites in this field.
2. Angel of Empire: A horse that seems to peaking at the right time, Angel of Empire will check into Churchill Downs off a win at the Arkansas Derby in April.
Angel of Empire was able to kick it into gear in that race, going from sixth to first by the top of the stretch and registering career-best speed ratings in the process.
Without much speed in this field on paper, Angel of Empire has a chance to be the late closer that eventually wins this thing.
3. Reincarnate: You need at least one long shot on your ticket, and Reincarnate is where I landed as a contrarian play.
Everybody is talking about how the lack of pace in this field will set up well for late closers like the two horses listed above, but if things go the other way and this race becomes about a horse getting out to an early lead and staying there, Reincarnate could hit the board at a huge number.
Reincarnate may not have the game to win in this field, but if he can get out to the lead and keep hold of it late, he’ll juice up your exotics.
Thomas Casale
Action Network senior editor
1. Angel of Empire: The Arkansas Derby winner has finished outside the top two just once in his career and that race was on turf.
Angel of Empire is a late closer and jockey Flavien Prat knows this track well.
Prat’s horses have finished in the money four times in his five Derby starts. Angel of Empire is in peak form with the right jockey to ride him to victory.
2. Disarm: Disarm has just one win in five career starts and is coming off a third-place finish in the Lexington Stakes.
Nevertheless, this horse has the right pedigree to make a Run for the Roses.
Disarm turned in the fastest five-furlong workout at Churchill Downs. Jockey Joel Rosario was on Disarm when he finished second in the Louisiana Derby.
Look for the colt to be a factor on Saturday.
3. Two Phil’s: Two Phil’s enters the Derby with the highest Beyer Speed Figure of 101.
He also blazed two impressive morning workouts earlier this week.
Jockey Jareth Loveberry is making his Derby debut, and while that is a concern, he has a horse with the speed to contend.
