NBA

Breaking down Knicks-Heat second-round NBA playoff matchups

It’s the Heat. It’s the Knicks. It’s South Beach and it’s the Garden.

All that will be missing is the old “NBA on NBC” theme song.

An unlikely berth in the Eastern Conference finals will be on the line in this unexpected matchup that few experts saw coming.

Both were significant underdogs in their respective opening-round series’.

The Heat nearly didn’t even reach the main draw after dropping their first play-in game to the Hawks.

Both pulled off surprisingly one-sided victories, the Knicks taking down the 51-win Cavaliers and the Heat shocking the top-seeded Bucks, both in five games.

Now, over two decades after this bitter rivalry was once an annual spring event, they meet again.

It will be Heat star Jimmy Butler against his former coach Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks, Jalen Brunson hoping to take his first season in orange and blue to the next level, and Julius Randle looking to shake off his re-aggravated sprained left ankle.

The Post’s Zach Braziller breaks down the key matchups that will decide whether the Knicks can get past their old rivals and return to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time in 23 years:

Jalen Brunson goes up for a shot during the Knicks’ series-clinching win over the Cavaliers. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

Knicks’ 3-point shooting vs. Heat’s 3-point defense

The Knicks were the most inaccurate 3-point shooting team in the first round, making just 28.2 percent of their attempts. Some of that can be attributed to the opponent.

The Cavaliers are an elite defensive team, and the Knicks were 19th in the NBA during the regular season from distance and eighth in attempts.

The Heat can struggle defending the 3 — the Bucks shot 37.9 percent in their first-round series — and will be without one of their top perimeter defenders in Victor Oladipo (torn patellar tendon).

Edge: Even

Heat’s 3-point shooting vs. Knicks’ 3-point defense

Miami was one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league during the regular season, hitting just 34.4 percent of their attempts, which was 27th in the NBA.

Then, against the Bucks, they caught fire, shooting the 3 at a 45 percent clip despite losing marksman Tyler Herro in Game 1 to a broken right hand.

Jimmy Butler drives to the basket during the Heat’s series-clinching victory over the favored Bucks. NBAE via Getty Images

The Knicks’ 3-point defense improved in the postseason, too, not only holding the Cavaliers to 32.7 percent (they allowed 35.7 percent during the regular season), but limiting them to an average of 30.6 attempts, the third-fewest in the opening round.

Edge: Knicks

Rebounding

Mitchell Robinson and his teammates crushed the Cavs on the glass, out-rebounding them by an average of 8.2 and notching 18.2 second-chance points per game.

Their offensive rebounding percentage was an obscene 39.4 percent, by far the best in the league in the opening round.

Those numbers were similarly elite during the regular season, a major advantage for the Knicks in this series.

Miami, with Bam Adebayo up front, was out-rebounded by the Bucks in the first round, but it does protect its defensive glass well, ranked fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (73.3) during the regular season.

Edge: Knicks

Drawing fouls and shooting free throws

The Knicks attempted the third-most free throws in the league (25.5) during the regular season and have matched that figure so far in the postseason, though their percentage of 76.1 was in the bottom third of the NBA.


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Only the 76ers were more accurate at the charity stripe than the Heat (83.1 percent).

Keeping Jimmy Butler off the line is a chore — he got there an average of 9.6 times against the Bucks.

Edge: Heat

Knicks’ ability to get paint points vs. Heat’s interior defense

The Heat were dead last in blocks per game at 3.0 during the regular season, and one of the Knicks’ strengths is their ability to get into the lane — with Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley all capable of creating chaos either with dribble penetration or on post-ups.

Edge: Knicks

RJ Barrett’s ability to drive to the basket will be one of the keys for the Knicks in their series vs. the Heat. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

Heat’s ability to get paint points vs. Knicks’ interior defense

Robinson and backup center Isaiah Hartenstein dominated the Cavaliers’ front line and owned the interior, combining to block three shots each game of the series.

The undersized Heat will struggle to score inside against the Knicks. They were 24th in paint scoring during the season at 46.3 points per game.

Edge: Knicks

In transition

Both of these took advantage of their opportunities to run in their opening-round upsets, combining for 38.4 points in transition.


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That was mostly the result of their respective defenses forcing turnovers.

They were No. 1 and No. 2 in the first round in points off turnovers, a strong suit of the Heat during the regular season as well, when it was sixth in the league. Neither team plays fast — they were both ranked in the bottom five in tempo during the year.

Edge: Even

Depth/bench

This was one of the key factors in the Knicks’ decisive five-game series win over the Cavaliers, the firepower they bring off the bench.

Immanuel Quickley will be key factor off the Knicks’ bench in this series vs. Heat. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post

It changed somewhat when Quentin Grimes suffered a right shoulder injury in Game 3, forcing Josh Hart into the starting lineup.

But with Grimes expected to return on Sunday, the Knicks’ depth gets an added boost.

Their bench, led by Hart, Sixth Man of the Year finalist Quickley, Hartenstein and versatile forward Obi Toppin, is a huge asset.

Randle’s iffy status could change that, pushing either Toppin or Hart into the opening five.

Losing Herro and Oladipo in the first round to injuries were significant blows to the Heat, though wings Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have outperformed their regular-season output so far in the playoffs.

Edge: Knicks

Coaching

Tom Thibodeau has made the Knicks matter again, leading the franchise to the postseason twice in the past three years and guiding it to the second round for the first time since 2013.

He has shed the lazy narrative attached to him as stubborn and unwilling to adjust, going young this year after a shaky start and even benching a struggling Randle in the fourth quarter of the Knicks’ Game 4 victory over the Cavaliers.

Erik Spoelstra, meanwhile, is considered one of the sport’s top coaches, a two-time champion who has missed the playoffs just three times in 15 years as the Heat coach.

Erik Spoelstra AP

Thibodeau coached circles around J.B. Bickerstaff in the first round, but his adversary here is every bit his equal.

Edge: Even

Intangibles

This is mostly new terrain for the Knicks, their first time in the second round in a decade. It’s old hat for Miami, which reached the NBA Finals three years ago and the Eastern Conference finals last spring. It is battle-tested and used to finding a way in the postseason. Experience matters this time of year, and the Heat own a significant edge in that area.

Edge: Heat