Aaron Rodgers is finally, mercifully, a New York Jet.
And expectations couldn’t be higher in the betting market.
The former Packers quarterback was officially traded for a package that included three future picks and a swap of first-round picks in Thursday’s NFL Draft — ending a months-long courtship that felt equal parts inevitable and exhausting by the time Monday’s move was finally announced.
Even so, the move drew swift reaction from oddsmakers at BetMGM, who tightened the Jets’ title price from 16/1 to 14/1 in the wake of Monday’s blockbuster — the sixth-shortest odds on the board and the shortest preseason price for this team since 2011.
New York was already one of the hottest bets in the futures market even before the Rodgers move became official.
The Jets have been the biggest liability in the Super Bowl market for just about every sportsbook in America since early March when the rumor mill reached a fever pitch following Rodgers’ meeting with owner Woody Johnson and team brass in California.
That prompted a flurry of betting activity that drove New York’s title odds down to 20/1 or shorter at most books. When he signaled his intent to join the team a week later, that was slashed to 14/1, and the Jets were the most-bet team to win the AFC (+700) and AFC East (+225) when news broke on Monday.
As if that’s not enough, New York’s preseason win total (9.5) is priced at -134 to the Over for a group that hasn’t won 10 games since 2015. The team is -150 to reach the postseason for the first time since 2010.
None of that should surprise anyone who’s followed this saga from the beginning.
But if you didn’t buy early, there’s little reason to pay the full sticker price now.
Sure, the Jets look good on paper, especially if Rodgers can regain his All-Pro form.
He’s a little over 14 months removed from winning back-to-back MVP awards, both of which came with new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett at the helm of Green Bay’s offense.
If Rodgers can resemble anything close to that, it’d be a boon for a team that was essentially a quarterback away from competing in 2022.
New York finished 16th in DVOA with a top-five defense against the toughest schedule in the league, per Football Outsiders, all while cycling through Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco at the most important position in sports.
So why not bet on the Jets? Because, at this price, you’re already paying for all that. And you’re assuming all of the risk, too.
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The only teams with shorter title odds after Monday’s trade are the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Eagles and 49ers.
The first four are led by the top four MVP finalists in 2022, and the fifth boasts arguably the best roster in football outside of the quarterback position.
It’ll take an MVP-level season from Rodgers for his new team to join that elite group — if he’s even got one left.
The 39-year-old passer is coming off easily the worst season of his career, posting his lowest marks in QBR (39.3), passer rating (91.1) and yards per game (217.4) in 15 years as a starter.
He’ll be surrounded by a cadre of young playmakers in New York, but are we even sure that’s a good thing?
Rodgers was famously adversarial to the young talent around him in Green Bay, to the point that current and former receivers alike publicly criticized his unwillingness to develop chemistry or even share crucial team signals with newcomers.
Now he’ll attempt to foster relationships with a whole new cast of characters in what could be his final season in the NFL, behind a leaky offensive line riddled with injury concerns.
And if anything were to happen to Rodgers — who has suffered two season-ending injuries within the last decade — the team would be forced to turn back to Wilson in the ultimate disaster scenario.
Let me be clear: There’s a reality in which all of this works out swimmingly for everyone involved.
It isn’t a far-fetched one, either. But it’s far from the likeliest outcome, and at this price, you’d be paying for all the upside and risking all of the downside — just like the Jets did on Monday.
