The Red Sox pulled off a miracle, walk-off win on Tuesday, coming from behind twice to beat the Twins 5-4 in the 10th inning.
Boston will try to win the series on Wednesday, so we have Twins vs. Red Sox odds and predictions to make.
While the Red Sox have been hot, winning four of their past five games, I’m betting they cool off and drop this one.
Twins vs. Red Sox odds
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Moneyline: Twins (-130) vs. Red Sox (+110)
Spread: Twins -1.5 (+122) vs. Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
Total: Over 9 (+105) | Under 9 (-125)
Twins vs. Red Sox prediction
(7:10 p.m. ET. ESPN+)
I’ve always been high on Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan.
After a solid 2022 campaign (147 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.57 expected ERA), the young righty seems to be putting it all together in 2023.
Ryan has posted three consecutive quality starts to open the campaign, boasting a 2.84 ERA and an incredible 37.1% strikeout rate. And, somehow, his 1.58 expected ERA suggests room for even higher production.
The difference is an added splitter, Ryan’s best pitch so far.
He’s thrown it 53 times in 16 plate appearances and allowed zero hits, with hitters either swinging and missing (34.5%) or weakly hitting a ground ball (-3-degree average launch angle, 81.7 mph average launch angle).
Meanwhile, Red Sox starting pitcher Corey Kluber looks washed. None of his offerings come in over 90 mph, and his location command is teetering.
As a result, Kluber boasts a 6.92 ERA backed up by a 5.55 expected ERA.
His ground ball rate is down while his home run rate is sky-high, and I don’t see much positive regression coming in the future.
Boston has the lineup advantage, but it’s minimal.
The Red Sox lineup is not deep enough, as so much of their hard-hit balls and production comes from Rafael Devers, so many teams have been pitching around the superstar third baseman.
Meanwhile, the Twins have a considerable fielding advantage, which helps offset the Red Sox’s hitting edge.
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The Twins also have the better bullpen, but both teams used their top relievers yesterday, so it’s hard to project how the late innings might play out.
So, instead, I recommend targeting Ryan and the Twins in the first half. Look for Minnesota to barrel up Kluber while Ryan keeps the Red Sox at bay, and bet accordingly.
Twins vs. Red Sox pick
Twins F5 ML (-140, Caesars)