Welcome to MLB Wednesday!
Plenty of games are scattered throughout the day today, but let’s look at a few in the later window to find some good spots to analyze.
I have my eye on one power hitter and a few pitchers that could set us up for a nice evening!
MLB PrizePicks predictions Wednesday
Yordan Alvarez more than 1.5 Total Bases
Jose Berrios remains challenging to figure out, but there’s certainly been more bad than good.
Since the beginning of 2022, he has struggled against lefties, yielding a .217 ISO, 39% flyball and 37% hard-hit rates.
He also strikes out roughly 6% fewer lefties than righties.
That alone puts Alvarez in a good spot; he owns a .305 ISO and a 51% hard-hit rate since the beginning of 2022.
I’m happy to invest in Alvarez tonight.
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Nick Martinez less than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Martinez hasn’t eclipsed this number in 2023, and I can’t quite figure out why this number is 5.0 and not 4.0.
The Braves do have some hefty K rates within their lineup, but Martinez is only putting away 17% of right-handed hitters since the start of last season.
Atlanta will likely roll out five righties, while Albies (from the left side today), strikes out less than 20% of the time.
I think there is a more likely chance that Atlanta does enough damage to force Martinez out of the game early, rather than him striking out more than five batters today.
Griffin Canning more than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Canning came back from injury and threw just 69 pitches against Washington.
His four strikeouts may look pedestrian, but surprisingly, the Nationals own the lowest team-strikeout rate in the league.
Canning produced a whopping 21% swinging-strike rate against them last week, so perhaps he left a few on the table.
A short leash is concerning, but if we’re lucky, he’ll be clear for 80 pitches during his second bout tonight.
Canning struck out 10 batters in a minor-league rehab start a few weeks ago, and the Yankees, on the other hand, rank bottom half of the league in strikeout percentage.
They’re also likely welcoming back Josh Donaldson into the lineup, who has looked horrible the last couple of years, while boasting an atrocious strikeout rate.
Filling in for Giancarlo Stanton is Oswaldo Cabrera, who strikes out 30% of the time against RHP.
If Canning can avoid damage, there are surely strikeouts to be had in this lineup, and his stuff has been pretty darn good so far.
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Joe Ryan more than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Ryan has been incredible so far this year, which might be due to a slightly new pitch mix.
The Red Sox don’t strike out a ton, but there are a few bats in that lineup that are vulnerable, between Casas, Hernandez, Duran and Chang.
The top five hitters in this lineup have elite K rates – and three of them are lefties.
Historically, that would be bad news for Ryan, who struck out just 18% of lefties last season.
However, that number has jumped to 26% this year and he’s essentially putting one lefty away per inning.
He’s been absolutely dominant against righties (sporting a cool 43% K rate this season), and despite good-hitting weather, I think this “new-look” Joe Ryan is here to stay.
My concern with him during his previous start was his pitch-count leash, but he threw over 90 pitches, so it looks like he is free to roam about the cabin.