The Hawks find themselves in the play-in round Tuesday for the second straight season, two years removed from their stunning run to the Eastern Conference finals.
Standing in their way is a familiar foe in the Heat, which knocked Atlanta out of the postseason last year amid its own run to the conference finals.
And, sure enough, Miami is once again favored to win this matchup to clinch the East’s seventh seed.
Here’s how we’re betting on the 7:30 p.m. ET game on TNT.
Heat vs. Hawks odds
(via BetMGM)
- Heat -4.5 (-115), moneyline -200
- Hawks +4.5 (-105), moneyline +165
- O/U 226.5 (-110)
Heat vs. Hawks prediction and analysis
(7:30 p.m. ET. TNT)
This season hasn’t gone how either the Heat or Hawks had hoped for ahead of the play-in opener, and neither has played their best basketball as of late.
But there are plenty of reasons to favor Miami in this contest.
Start with the matchup itself: The Heat have won three of four games this year against the Hawks, which comes a year after Miami scored a 4-1 series win over Atlanta in the first round of last year’s postseason.
It’s not like it was particularly close, with the Heat outscoring the Hawks by 12 points per game across the entire series.
Much of Miami’s success in this particular matchup has come from its ability to corral star guard Trae Young, who has historically struggled against the Heat’s size and defensive tenacity.
Over the last three seasons, Young is averaging 19.4 points with subpar shooting splits from the field (36.4%) and from deep (25.4%) in 15 games against Miami.
Unsurprisingly, his team is 4-11 in those contests.
And I don’t see that trend changing in a favorable spot for Tuesday’s favorites.
Dating back to those two home wins over the Hawks in early March, Miami has won seven of its last eight games as a home favorite (5-3 against the spread), with each of the last three wins coming by at least seven points.
The Heat also hadn’t played their starters in a meaningful capacity since last Thursday, when they blew out the 76ers to help secure their playoff hopes.
That’s historically a good sign for Miami, which is a stellar 11-3 ATS with at least four days’ rest dating back to 2015.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
- Use the North Carolina betting apps
Obviously, this isn’t the textbook example of that trend, but star Jimmy Butler hasn’t played since that win on Thursday, and the rest of the starting lineup was used sparingly in Sunday’s big win over Orlando.
As we’ve seen over the last three seasons, a healthy Miami is a scary sight ahead of the postseason.
When you consider the postseason coaching edge of Erik Spoelstra over Quin Snyder, too, it’s hard not to back the Heat as modest favorites in this one.
Heat vs. Hawks pick
- Heat -4.5 (-115, BetMGM)