There has been a lot of drama at Chelsea Football Club over the last 18 months.
There was a change in ownership from Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich to American Todd Boehly.
There were two managerial changes from Thomas Tuchel to Graham Potter back to Frank Lampard, the manager Tuchel replaced late in 2021.
And somewhere in between all of that was an astounding $350 million spent on transfers.
All of that chaos has added up to Chelsea sitting in 11th-place in the Premier League, yet they’re still alive in the Champions League.
The Blues are an even-money road favorite against relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday.
Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton pick
(10 a.m. ET)
It may feel like a terrible time to back Chelsea given the turmoil at the club and the fact that they have a huge Champions League match at Real Madrid on Tuesday, but it’s hard to pass up this spot.
While Chelsea have struggled to actually get results and find the back of the net in the Premier League this season, everything under the hood suggests there’s a lot going right for the Blues.
Since the World Cup, Chelsea has posted a 4-6-5 (W-D-L) record with a -1 goal difference (12 GF, 13 GA).
That is a pretty damning ledger for a team that was expected to have an outside chance at the Premier League title and was one of the favorites to finish inside the top-four this season. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story.
According to Understat, Chelsea have a +9.5 expected goal difference in the same timeframe and, according to their expected points, should be about nine points better than they are in the standings.
The biggest issue for Chelsea is not that they can’t create more chances than their opponents, but that they just don’t finish the opportunities they do generate.
The Blues have amassed 24.2 expected goals in their last 15 Premier League matches and have scored just 12 times in that span.
They’re underperforming by 12 goals, which is unheard of for a club with this much talent.
Something has to give.
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At some point, Chelsea should positively regress offensively and Wolverhampton seems to be a good candidate for the Blues to get off the schneid.
Wolves are 0-1-2 in their last three matches and have conceded seven times in that span.
Wolverhampton don’t offer much of a threat going forward — they rank 20th in big scoring chances created — so Chelsea should be able to play with the handbrake off and throw bodies forward at a leaky defense that ranks 13th in non-penalty expected goals allowed and 15th in shots allowed per 90 minutes.
Lampard’s return to the Chelsea touchline could provide a spark and bettors can benefit from it by backing the Blues to come good offensively.
Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton prediction
Chelsea -1.5 (+280, FanDuel)