The college basketball season is down to one final game, when surprising San Diego State battles dominant UConn for the championship on Monday night.
The Aztecs have been the cardiac kids this March, defeating both Creighton and FAU by one point in the final seconds to advance.
Meanwhile, Connecticut is in the midst of an all-time dominant tournament run.
The Huskies have beaten their five opponents by an average of 20.6 points.
UConn is a 7.5-point favorite on Monday night.
That ties the largest spread for a national championship game since the Huskies were 9.5-point dogs to Duke back in 1999.
To be honest, the large spread is warranted.
Here is an unbelievable stat for you: UConn is 16-0 versus non-conference opponents this season, winning every game by double digits.
So the question is: Does San Diego State have a chance on Monday night?
The matchup, on paper, suggests they do because of their defense.
Take nothing away from UConn’s last two wins, but Miami ranks 99th in defensive efficiency, and Gonzaga ranks 73rd.
Now, the Huskies did blow out two very good defensive teams in Saint Mary’s and Arkansas, but San Diego State will present some challenges.
The Aztecs defend the perimeter exceptionally well, ranking third in 3-point defense.
San Diego State is also a strong rebounding team, a key element in competing with UConn.
The Huskies’ big front line can wear down smaller teams and typically owns the offensive boards, ranking second in the country in that department.
However, San Diego State ranks 68th in defensive rebounding percentage and 76th in offensive rebounding percentage.
If the Aztecs can compete on the boards, they have a shot in this game.
The issue for the Aztecs is on the other side of the ball.
San Diego State won’t be the only great defense on the court Monday night.
UConn enters eighth in defensive efficiency, 11th in 2-point field goal percentage defense and 15th in 3-point field goal percentage defense.
San Diego State can have issues scoring at times.
If the Aztecs have a prolonged scoring drought in this game, it could be lights out for their title hopes.
When we get to this part of the season, we are really splitting hairs on the matchups.
These are two very strong defensive teams that have obviously beaten good competition to get to this point.
There are also different ways to bet the game.
If you don’t want to bet the spread, you can look at the total, team totals, or player props.
There is also the option to bet it live.
My opinion is the spread is a bit high.
KenPom predicts UConn winning by five, and I made the Huskies -6.
The X factor is UConn is trying to cap off the most dominant tournament run we’ve ever seen.
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So, while there is a little value in backing San Diego State, it takes guts to bet against the Huskies right now.
The bet I’m making is under 60.5 for the first half.
Both teams play at a slower pace. With two strong defenses, look for this game to be a grinder.
While San Diego State’s defense gets all the love, I particularly like how the Huskies’ D matches up in this game.
If you are looking to bet on this game live, watch turnovers early on.
One thing UConn had issues with during the regular season is turnovers, and San Diego State’s defense can force mistakes.
If the game is sloppy early, it favors the Aztecs.
Enjoy the game, and don’t be afraid to throw a few bucks on Syracuse futures when 2024 title odds are released Monday night.
The Orange will be one of the most improved teams in the country next season!
