It figured to be a crazy NCAA Tournament, but a Final Four featuring UConn, Miami, FAU and San Diego State isn’t what most people were expecting.
Saturday’s national semifinal between UConn and Miami sets up as a very competitive game.
The narrative is how dominant the Huskies have been in this tournament and the numbers support it.
UConn has beaten its four tournament opponents by an average of 20 points.
Though Miami hasn’t been as dominant, the Hurricanes’ run has been just as impressive.
Miami trailed Drake by eight points with five minutes left in Round 1. They then went on a 16-1 run and have hung 80-plus points on Indiana, Houston and Texas, which all rank Top 50 in defensive efficiency on KenPom.
UConn has a big edge on the front line, but that has been the case for Miami this entire tournament.
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One advantage Miami has if this is a tight game is free-throw shooting. UConn’s defense ranks 319th in opponent’s foul shots per game, while Miami ranks 15th.
The Canes are also a very good free-throw shooting team, hitting 78 percent as a team.
In its last three wins, free-throw shooting was a big factor as Miami went 52-of-64 from the foul line.
I think UConn probably gets through but expect a close game on Saturday. I’ll take the points with Miami.
UConn vs. Miami pick
Miami +5.5 (FanDuel)