The Post’s Mark W. Sanchez previews the NL West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U wins: 96.5
Key player: Max Muncy. If the lefty slugger rediscovers his form, then the losses of free agents Trea Turner and Justin Turner will be much easier to absorb. Muncy was a peripheral MVP candidate in 2021, but he suffered a partially torn UCL at the end of the season that bled into his 2022 season. He was dreadful through July, hitting just .161, before he showed glimpses of his former self the final two months of last season. A healthy and hitting Muncy would be bad news for the rest of the division.
Player who’ll need to step up: Miguel Rojas. After Trea Turner left, the shortstop reins were handed to Gavin Lux, who tore his right ACL. The Dodgers now will turn to Rojas, a former Marlin, who is coming off a down year. Can the Dodgers’ prized coaching minds find another level of his game?
Name you’ll get to know: James Outman. The outfielder with an unfortunate surname is one of the young sluggers on whom the Dodgers are banking. The 25-year-old drilled 31 minor league home runs last season, made a strong, four-game MLB debut and could catch on with the Dodgers quickly.
Biggest question mark: Can the kids keep the juggernaut humming? The Dodgers, with a top-ranked farm system, allowed players such as the Turners, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to leave, and their replacements are either internal or fliers (including Noah Syndergaard). Will the Dodgers regret not importing another proven star?
How it’ll go down: The Dodgers have won the division nine of the past 10 years and still have Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith in their lineup. It will take more than one quiet offseason for Dave Roberts’ deep crew to be dethroned.
2. San Diego Padres
O/U wins: 93.5
Key player: Fernando Tatis Jr. A splashy and star-driven club still has major questions with its biggest, homegrown superstar. Tatis has been a force whenever he has been on the field, but he cannot take the field until April 20 because of a PED suspension, which followed shoulder and wrist surgeries that cost him all of 2022. The last time he played with the Padres, he slammed 42 home runs in 2021, when he finished third in MVP voting and mostly played shortstop. He will return with uncertainty and a new position: right field.
Player who’ll need to step up: Seth Lugo. Step-ups from pitchers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez would be helpful, too, but we’ll go with the former Met. Lugo, in his first year away from Queens, is getting a chance to start for the first time since 2017. San Diego believes in his curveball and will need capable, back-end starters after a 2022 season in which only Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove were dependable.
Name you’ll get to know: Jay Groome. In a farm system that is barren, the New Jersey native is one of the few who can help. Groome was a first-round pick of the Red Sox in 2016, needed Tommy John surgery and never made it with Boston before getting flipped to San Diego last offseason. The lefty has impressed in camp.
Biggest question mark: Can all the talent translate into enough victories to dethrone the Dodgers? There is not a more feared offensive quartet than Tatis, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado. If Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz prove they have anything left, San Diego’s offense could make up for a rotation with depth concerns.
How it’ll go down: The Padres will be an offensive dynamo, but they will have to outslug their pitching and depth concerns.
3. San Francisco Giants
O/U wins: 80.5
Key player: Michael Conforto. In the aftermath of Carlos Correa failing his physical, the biggest pivot the Giants made was toward the former Mets outfielder, who missed all of last season following shoulder surgery. Conforto is now healthy and trying to show he can be the All-Star he was in 2017, when he blasted 27 home runs in just 109 games.
Player who’ll need to step up: Sean Manaea. The lefty was solid for six seasons with the Athletics before an up-and-down campaign with the Padres in 2022, which ended with a 4.96 ERA. The Giants scooped him up, believing there is more in his arm, and the early bet is looking like a good one. Manaea has shown off improved velocity in camp and is trying to follow Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon as high-upside fliers whom the Giants have maximized.
Name you’ll get to know: Kyle Harrison. The Giants built their entire 2020 draft around Harrison, who was coaxed to turn pro rather than attend UCLA with $2.5 million. Harrison has turned into perhaps the best lefty pitching prospect in baseball, striking out 186 batters in 113 minor league innings last season. His major league shot should come soon.
Biggest question mark: Can depth beat star power? The Giants struck out on Aaron Judge, never officially signed Correa and swung a series of under-the-radar additions this offseason. With Conforto, Manaea, Ross Stripling, Mitch Haniger and Taylor Rogers, they hope enough holes have been plugged.
How it’ll go down: Gabe Kapler mixed and matched his way to 107 wins in 2021, but only 81 last season. This season likely will finish in between those poles. The Giants have the talent and depth for a wild-card run, but probably not enough talent to steal the division.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U wins: 75.5
Key player: Corbin Carroll. Arizona only needed to see 32 major league games last season before locking up the young outfielder for eight years and $111 million. Carroll, the fastest player in the game, is becoming the face of the Diamondbacks at just 22. Can he go from a superb prospect to a superb major leaguer?
Player who’ll need to step up: Madison Bumgarner. Is there anything left in MadBum’s legendary left arm? Bumgarner has been a disaster for three seasons in Arizona, and now would be a good time to bounce back. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make up a respectable top of the rotation, but the Diamondbacks lack starting depth. If Bumgarner, who reported to camp slimmer, can become a No. 3, Arizona would be thrilled.
Name you’ll get to know: Gabriel Moreno. The top catching prospect was blocked in Toronto, which shipped him to Arizona in the Daulton Varsho trade. After Carson Kelly fractured his forearm, it now appears Moreno will be the everyday catcher. The 23-year-old has a strong defensive reputation and good bat-to-ball skills.
Biggest question mark: The middle and back of the rotation. Behind Gallen and Kelly are Bumgarner, journeyman Zach Davies and a jumbled group of young pitchers that includes Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt. In a division with plenty of pitching, the Diamondbacks do not have many options.
How it’ll go down: The Diamondbacks are loaded with young talent and are on the rise, but this is a difficult division in which to pull off surprises. There are too many questions in the rotation and bullpen (which rated as the least-valuable in MLB last season) for manager Torey Lovullo’s crew to make much of a run, but the future is bright.
5. Colorado Rockies
O/U wins: 65.5
Key player: Kris Bryant. In 2022, the first season of his $182 million contract, the former Cubs MVP played 42 games and hit five home runs. Now healthy after back and foot problems, Bryant will have to carry the offense and show, at 31, his best years are not behind him.
Player who’ll need to step up: German Marquez. The Rockies’ ace is coming off the worst season of his career. The righty is among the most durable starters in the game, but his effectiveness has declined — particularly at Coors Field, where he was crushed last season (6.70 ERA). In what will be his seventh season in Colorado, the groundball specialist will have to find what works at home.
Name you’ll get to know: Ezequiel Tovar. The organization’s top prospect debuted in September, shortly after turning 21, and became the youngest position player in Rockies history. Tovar is primed to become Colorado’s everyday shortstop, with a reliable glove and bat, after he emerged by hitting .319 in Double-A and Triple-A last season.
Biggest question mark: Pitching. The Rockies’ staff posted the worst ERA in baseball last season (5.06), and little has been done to fix it. They will count on rebound seasons from Marquez and Kyle Freeland, who both disappointed in 2022. The fact Jose Ureña, with a career 4.80 ERA, is their No. 3 speaks poorly about their quality and depth.
How it’ll go down: Team owner Dick Montfort reportedly said in January, “I think we can play .500 ball,” which somehow both sets a low and lofty bar. The Rockies should aim higher, but they won’t reach higher with this roster.
