After a hot start to the year and an inconsistent stretch in January, Connecticut has turned it on over the past six weeks and is among the best bets to win it all outside of the No. 1 seeds.
First, the Huskies will have to get past pesky Iona, which is still looking for its first NCAA Tournament win in three years under Rick Pitino.
This is his best team yet, but will it finally be the one to pull off an upset for the ages?
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which tips off at 4:30 p.m. ET on TBS.
UConn vs. Iona odds
(via BetMGM)
- UConn -9.5 (-110), moneyline -500
- Iona +9.5 (-110), moneyline +360
- O/U 141.5 (-110)
UConn vs. Iona prediction and analysis
(4:30 p.m. ET., TBS)
Despite earning a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Connecticut has emerged as a popular choice to emerge out of the loaded West Region and even cut down the nets in Houston.
And it’s not hard to see why.
The Huskies looked like a potential title winner in late December, when they were a perfect 14-0 with double-digit wins over Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Florida. Then came a 5-7 run defined by turnovers and sloppy defensive play.
We haven’t seen the same team since.
Over the last month, UConn ranks first in T-Rank’s overall power rating and has been absolutely unstoppable on the offensive glass – grabbing a ridiculous 44.4% of its own misses to lead the country.
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That’s been the strategy all year for Dan Hurley’s group, which ranks first in offensive rebound rate (39.2%) and, as a direct result, sixth in offensive efficiency (119.5).
Star center Adama Sanogo (16.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is an absolute force down low for one of the best frontcourts in college basketball.
Meanwhile, sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins (16.1 PPG) is a legitimate NBA prospect who can create his own shot to draw attention from Sanogo and is the antidote for this team if that nasty turnover bug strikes.
It’s a terrifying combo for opposing teams to handle, especially those as green as Iona. The Gaels own the nation’s third-longest winning streak (14) but were 0-3 this year in Quad 1 or Quad 2 games.
They also struggle mightily to get to the line, which is clearly the best way to attack this other elite UConn defense.
In the end, I don’t see enough reason here to fade Connecticut, which is one of just four teams with top-20 efficiency on offense (sixth) and defense (19th) across the entire season.
Anything can happen in March, but I’d be pretty surprised if this is anything other than a blowout.
UConn vs. Iona pick
- UConn -9.5 (-110 BetMGM)