In a down year for blue bloods overall, Kentucky has weathered an inconsistent campaign to this point ahead of Friday’s first-round matchup with Providence.
Still, the Wildcats have won five of their last seven games and are dealing as decent favorites over a Friars team that ended the year on a major downward turn.
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s March Madness contest, which tips off at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
Kentucky vs. Providence pick
- Kentucky -4.5 (-105 BetMGM)
Kentucky vs. Providence prediction and analysis
Kentucky entered this season with high expectations behind star senior Oscar Tshiebwe, the reigning Wooden Award winner whose stellar campaign was cut short last year with that shocking loss to Saint Peter’s in the first round.
This year’s encore was bumpy to start: the Wildcats ranked No. 4 in the preseason polls before dropping two of their first five games.
By mid-January, John Calipari’s group was staring down a 10-6 record with a legitimate chance at missing the tourney altogether after a bad home loss to South Carolina.
This team hasn’t been the same since.
And that’s bad news for Providence.
Kentucky rattled off four straight wins after that point, which included big wins over Tennessee and Texas A&M.
And after another shaky road loss at Georgia, the ‘Cats won five of six with three wins over tournament teams – including those Vols again – before bowing out early in the SEC Tournament.
During that 5-2 run, this team has ranked eighth in T-Rank’s power rating behind the third-most efficient offense in the country.
The key has been inside: the Wildcats rank second in offensive rebound rate (43.6%) and 20th in free-throw rate (43.7%) over that stretch, as Tshiebwe has averaged 19 points and 12.4 rebounds with a 20.7% rebound rate on both ends.
Meanwhile, Providence has ranked 90th in T-Rank since Feb. 1 thanks to its wholly ineffective interior defense, which is allowing opponents to shoot 54.4% inside the arc with an overall defensive rating (106.2) ranked outside the top 200 in that span.
That’s led the Friars to a 4-6 record over their last 10 games with four losses in their last five games.
Ed Cooley’s group has ranked in the bottom 20 nationally in defensive rebound rate (72.7%) and 3-point defense (46.2%), which is a devastatingly bad combo against Kentucky’s inside-out attack.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting app
On the other side, Providence generates the lion’s share of its offensive production from offensive rebounding and inside scoring – a worthy approach against most teams but a suspect one against Tshiebwe and this Wildcats frontcourt.
In the end, this just doesn’t spell a favorable matchup for Providence, which is one of the coldest teams in this tournament field and is effectively a lesser version of Kentucky with a much worse defense.
We’ve already seen late bloomers Duke and Texas waltz their way to easy first-round victories; don’t be surprised if we see a similar result from the Wildcats.
Kentucky vs. Providence odds (via BetMGM)
- Kentucky -4.5 (-105), moneyline -190
- Providence +4.5 (-115), moneyline +160
- O/U 144.5 (under -115)