After Saint Peter’s made a historic run through the 2022 NCAA Tournament, everyone is looking for that next No. 15 seed that can defy history.
Could Colgate be the next team to carry that torch?
The Raiders have every ingredient for a giant killer, but they face one of the biggest giants of all in Texas, which is playing at an elite level with title aspirations in view.
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s March Madness contest, which tips off at 7:25 p.m. ET on TBS.
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Texas vs. Colgate odds
(via BetMGM)
- Texas -13.5 (-110), moneyline -1100
- Colgate +13.5 (-110), moneyline +700
- O/U 150.5 (-110)
Texas vs. Colgate prediction and analysis
As far as Cinderellas go, there’s a lot to like about Colgate.
It all starts with this team’s perimeter shooting, which is always a solid approach for a big underdog.
The Raiders rank first in the entire country in 3–point percentage (40.9%) and effective field-goal percentage (58.6%) while ranking seventh in 2-point percentage (57.1%) and 15th in turnover rate (15%).
If that sounds like the makings of a highly effective offense, you’d be right: Colgate ranks in the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency despite facing one of the weakest schedules in the country.
That’s also part of the problem with this group: it’s played just two tournament teams all year long – losing by 27 points at Auburn before a 1-point home loss to Vermont a week later.
And it hasn’t seen anything like Texas, which has survived a relentless month of hoops looking like one of the best teams in the country.
The Longhorns are among just four teams with top-20 efficiency on both ends (Alabama, Houston, Connecticut).
They rank second in T-Rank’s power rating over their last eight games, including two blowout wins over top-seeded Kansas en route to an 6-2 run overall.
Texas also boasts the nation’s most efficient defense in that stretch with a top-five turnover rate (24.4%), all while featuring three senior guards with elite scoring potential and an emerging two-way star in center Dylan Disu, who averaged 14.7 points and 8.3 rebounds to win Big-12 Tournament MVP honors.
I’m mighty skeptical of Colgate being able to execute its sweet-shooting ball-control offense against a defense as disruptive as this one.
The Raiders’ last three tournament bids all ended with this team running out of gas against a high-major that eventually imposed its will and physicality; expect a similar outcome on Thursday.
Texas vs. Colgate pick
- Texas -13.5 (-110 BetMGM)