On Wednesday, Arizona State will face Nevada to see which team moves on to play TCU in a game that looks extremely even on paper.
Nevada appeared to clearly be in the NCAA Tournament before dropping its last three games.
The Wolf Pack’s body of work was just good enough to sneak in, though.
Arizona State has run hot and cold this season but the Sun Devils own impressive wins over VCU, Creighton, USC and Arizona.
Both of these teams are strong defensively, which is why we see a low total of 134.
The difference is Arizona State can really struggle to shoot the basketball.
Arizona State vs. Nevada pick
(9:10 p.m. ET, TruTV)
The Sun Devils rank 274th or worse in free-throw percentage, two-point percentage, three-point percentage and effective field goal percentage.
That gives Nevada a slight edge in this matchup.
Another factor will be free-throw shooting. In a game where defenses could rule, the Wolf Pack gets to the foul line a lot.
Nevada ranks seventh in free-throw scoring rate and 22nd in free-throw attempts per game.
Meanwhile, Arizona State ranks 236th in opponent’s free-throw attempts per game.
Foul shooting may not seem like a big deal in handicapping but in a projected tight game, a big advantage like this could be the difference between winning and losing.
Another reason I give Nevada an edge is because the Wolf Pack don’t turn the ball over.
Betting on College Basketball?
- Check out the best College Basketball betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on College Basketball
- Get the latest NCAA Championship Winner odds
Arizona State’s defense ranks 57th in turnover percentage but that shouldn’t be a factor in this matchup.
Again, in a tight game, taking care of the basketball could be the difference.
Nevada is the better overall team, so I’ll back it as a slight ’dog.
Arizona vs. Nevada prediction
Nevada +2.5 (-120, FanDuel)