This is supposed to be the year that Pep Guardiola and Manchester City finally get over the hump in the UEFA Champions League.
This is Guardiola’s seventh season in charge at the Etihad and while the Cityzens have won four Premier League titles in that span, they’ve yet to taste European glory.
In fact, they’ve only been to one Champions League Final and two semifinals in the Spaniard’s tenure.
City hosts RB Leipzig on Tuesday.
The two teams are tied, 1-1, on aggregate entering the match, so whoever wins this encounter will advance into the quarterfinals.
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Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig prediction
(4 p.m. ET, Paramount+)
As usual, Manchester City leads the Premier League in almost meaningful statistical category.
The Cityzens have the best expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes and rank first in creating and limiting big scoring chances.
Everyone knows this is an elite offensive team, but they’re also one of the best defensive units on the planet, too.
But overlook RB Leipzig at your own risk.
Since Die Roten Bullen hired Marco Rose as a manager in September, Leipzig has looked like one of the best clubs in Europe.
They may not be on City’s level, but they’re not all that far off.
RB Leipzig has gone 12-4-3 (W-D-L) in the Bundesliga under Rose, which is just one point off Bayern Munich’s pace.
And if you look at the two club’s statistical portfolios, the gap seems even tighter.
Leipzig has allowed just 20 goals and 19.5 expected goals in their last 19 Bundesliga contests and their +21.7 xG difference in that span is basically on par with Bayern’s.
Bayern Munich may edge Leipzig with talent and experience, but the numbers show these two teams to be peers.
Why does this matter if Bayern is not involved in this match?
Because if City was scheduled to play Bayern Munich at the Etihad in a two-leg fixture that was tied 1-1 after the first 90 minutes this line would look a lot different.
City would still be the favorite, but the numbers would not be this wide.
Manchester City is still in a class of its own, but this RB Leipzig team is not as far behind the Cityzens as the odds imply.
Not only is Leipzig a fine bet to advance, but getting them at +8000 to win the Champions League is absolutely worth a look.
If they eliminate City, Leipzig’s number will absolutely plummet and the draw will open up completely.
Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig Champions League pick
Leipzig to advance +490 (FanDuel)