We swept the board with our pair of college basketball picks against the spread on Wednesday, cashing on heavily favored Washington State (-13.5) and Villanova (-11.5) against woefully overmatched conference foes.
We’ve got our eyes on much closer matchups on Thursday, both of which are rematches of surprising upsets late in the regular season.
We love the value on the early afternoon underdog, but we’re laying the points on an undervalued favorite later in the day.
Here are our favorite bets for Thursday’s conference tournaments, with odds courtesy of FanDuel:
College basketball odds and picks Thursday
(via FanDuel)
- Iowa State +4.5 vs. Baylor
- Virginia -1.5 vs. North Carolina
Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction and analysis
(12:30 p.m. ET., ESPN)
Few teams have been able to get the best of Baylor this year.
Fewer yet have done it twice. Iowa State has a chance to make it 3-for-3 in a nightmare spot for the Bears.
The Cyclones finished with a modest 9-9 record in conference play, but two of those wins came against Baylor, which committed a combined 33 turnovers in a pair of 15-point losses.
That’s nothing new for Iowa State, which ranks second in the nation in forced turnover rate (25.3%) and ninth in steal rate (13.3%).
The Bears own the country’s second-best offense in adjusted efficiency, but they have a nasty turnover problem – ranking outside of the top 150 in turnover rate (18.1%) and finishing just 7-6 when posting a turnover rate above 19%, as they did in both losses to the Cyclones.
Don’t be surprised to see a repeat on Thursday.
Baylor vs. Iowa State pick
- Iowa State +4.5 (FanDuel)
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Virginia vs. North Carolina prediction and analysis
(7 p.m. ET., ESPN)
Can North Carolina hit enough shots to keep its season alive? The Tar Heels are a perfect 11-0 when they shoot better than 33.3% from deep; they’re 9-12 in all other games, and their 30.2% mark from deep in ACC play ranks dead last in the conference.
They buried 10 triples in Wednesday’s 24-point win against Boston College, which was their biggest win over an ACC team all year long.
Still, it’s jarring to see this enigmatic group priced as a near-equal to Virginia, which has won 13 of its last 16 games entering its ACC Tournament opener.
Yes, one of those losses came against UNC, but the ‘Hoos also bested the ‘Heels in January and are well-rested ahead of Thursday’s rematch.
With star big man Armando Bacot potentially hampered by an ankle injury suffered in Wednesday’s win, there’s too much working against North Carolina in what will likely be the end of a tumultuous campaign.
Virginia vs. North Carolina pick
- Virginia -1.5 (FanDuel)