At long last, we’re getting the matchup we’ve been waiting for in the WCC Tournament final: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s, with the winner likely securing a top-four seed or better in the NCAA Tournament.
These teams split their season series in the regular season – Saint Mary’s won the first matchup in overtime before Gonzaga exacted revenge in its home finale three weeks later.
Which team will deliver the decisive blow and punch their ticket to the Big Dance?
After a winning bet on Gonzaga’s game last night against the San Francisco Dons, here is how we’re betting Tuesday’s contest, which tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s odds
(via BetMGM)
- Gonzaga -2.5 (-110), moneyline -150
- Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-110), moneyline +125
- O/U 138.5 (-110)
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s prediction and analysis
Saint Mary’s may be the lower-ranked team in the polls, but it’s graded out higher by advanced metrics all season long, and our friends at KenPom have the Gaels projected as the outright winner in this matchup.
So why, exactly, is Gonzaga favored to win this game?
A key reason, obviously, is brand recognition.
The Zags have long been the creme de la creme of the WCC, winning the conference tournament 18 times in 23 years and securing a No. 1 seed in four of the last five NCAA Tournaments.
It helps that those teams regularly featured future NBA players on the roster, from the likes of Domantas Sabonis (2016) and Zach Collins (2017) to Jalen Suggs (2021) and Chet Holmgren (2022).
This team simply isn’t built that way, and the results have been stark.
Fewer than half of Gonzaga’s conference wins came by double digits – a rarity for this group – and the team lost multiple games in-conference for the first time since 2016, when it was a No. 11 seed in the NCAA tourney.
The biggest issue this year has come on defense.
While the Bulldogs rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency for the fourth time in five years, their defense ranks 90th, which would be their first season outside of the top 50 since 2010.
They’re also allowing opponents to shoot 35.3% from three with a 39.7% 3-point attempt rate – both higher than any Gonzaga team has surrendered in the last decade.
Conversely, Saint Mary’s owns one of the best defenses in the entire country.
The Gaels rank seventh in adjusted efficiency and boast top-three marks in defensive rebound rate (78.2%) and opponent assist rate (35.6%).
Translation: you’ve got to work hard to score against this bunch, and you’ve generally only got one shot at it.
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Five of Gonzaga’s seven worst games by offensive rating resulted in losses, which includes the team’s stumble at Saint Mary’s in early February.
And while the offense bounced back in the rematch, the Bulldogs benefitted from strong shooting nights from their other options outside of leading scorer Drew Timme (21 PPG) – which has been a hit-or-miss proposition all year long.
Timme is almost certainly going to get his buckets in this matchup.
Will his teammates step up again? That’ll be the defining question on Tuesday.
And if the Gaels’ methodical offense can maintain the efficiency level we’ve seen in recent weeks – including in that loss to Gonzaga – I’d expect Randy Bennett’s group to cut down the nets for the first time since 2019.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s pick
- Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-110 BetMGM)