For the first time in 2023, we saw a true long shot winner on the PGA Tour.
Kurt Kitayama, a 200-1 long shot, came out of nowhere to beat a loaded field and stacked Sunday leaderboard to take home the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
It was a good reminder of why betting on golf can be so much fun.
The PGA Tour is stacked with superstar players, but you never know who will get hot on any given week.
Our attention now shifts to THE PLAYERS Championship, one of the biggest tournaments on the golf calendar.
Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler are the three favorites to win, with McIlroy and Rahm currently sitting at +850 and Scheffler right behind them at +1000.
And even though the PLAYERS is known as one of the toughest fields in golf, this tournament has seen some long shot winners in the past, most famously Si Woo Kim, who won as a +75000 outsider in 2017.
And even though it’s unlikely we’ll see another long shot like that take down this field, you can be sure that there will be some triple-digit players in contention come Sunday.
Anirban Lahiri finished runner-up here in 2022, Lee Westwood did the same in 2021 and Jim Furyk was second in 2019.
There’s just always so much chaos at TPC Sawgrass, that it behooves bettors to throw some darts and hope that their long shot can stay steady as players crumble around him.
Here are a few value bets for THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
Players Championship picks
Keegan Bradley (+5000, BetMGM)
There will be a few popular names in this range like Tom Kim and Rickie Fowler, but Bradley may fly under the radar a bit.
The St. John’s alumni has a runner-up, a T10 and a T20 finish in his last four outings and came alive in the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which should bode well as he heads to another challenging Florida course at TPC Sawgrass.
This will be one of the most talented fields of the year, but Bradley’s form is undeniable at this point, and he’s got some decent history here.
Bradley finished fifth at the 2022 PLAYERS and has some great numbers on Pete Dye courses, so he looks a sound investment at this price.
Shane Lowry (+5500, BetRivers)
Lowry continues to be a player I want to target at his current prices.
The Irishman didn’t contend at the Arnold Palmer, but he made the cut for the first time in his last five tries and was undone by one terrible round on Saturday.
We know that Lowry fancies himself in tough conditions and at big tournaments.
He’s won an Open Championship and owns a top-5 finish in each of the other three majors.
Lowry’s in decent form, has performed well at this event (he’s finished 8th and 13th in his last two outings at TPC Sawgrass) and plays some of his best golf on Pete Dye tracks.
He ticks every box for a player at this number.
Tommy Fleetwood (+8500, FanDuel)
Back to the well, we go.
Fleetwood didn’t exactly light it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but a lot of that came down to his putting. He gave back five strokes to the field on the greens, which basically rendered the rest of his game moot. That’s too bad, as Fleetwood once again gained strokes on the field on approach and from tee to green at the API.
Fleetwood has generally been solid at TPC Sawgrass, which makes sense since the windy, tricky conditions should suit his style. The Merseysider has a 22nd, 5th and 7th-place finish in three of his last four trips to Ponte Vedra Beach.
Hideki Matsuyama (+8500, FanDuel)
Simply put, this is a buy-low opportunity on a terrific player that is not fancied at all by the betting market right now.
We all know that Matsuyama is much more talented than this number suggests, but back-to-back missed cuts has ballooned his price.
But it’s not all been bad for Matsuyama in 2023 — he finished T9 at the Farmers last month.
The former Masters champion withdrew from this event in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021, but he did collect a top-10 here in 2019.
It’s a long shot, but it’s hard to look away at this price.