The NBA wasted no time reasserting itself as the drama kingpin of professional sports during yesterday’s return from the All-Star break. We’re usually only concerned with what happens on the court in the sports betting world – but try telling that to Thursday. Delayed planes, condensation on the court, and malfunctioning shot clocks all made appearances during last night’s games.
All in one day? This league! Cheers to Friday, hopefully being less eventful. Let’s find some PrizePicks player props to start the weekend.
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Ben Simmons Under 2.5 10-Point Games (Remainder of Season)
The Simmons saga has undoubtedly been a strange one. I want a Netflix documentary about his wacky career when the dust settles.
And we can add this to Thursday’s laundry list of “off-court NBA variables.” Rumblings surfaced yesterday of Simmons having a reduced (or no) role in the Nets’ foreseeable rotation.
The New York Post’s Andrew Crane reported that Brooklyn is “running out of time” to find a fit for Simmons. Head coach Jacque Vaughn apparently prefers not to play Simmons with surging center Nic Claxton due to a lack of spacing. Who would have thought? Many Nets followers have suggested that Simmons might have lost his backup guard role as well.
Despite the speculation and coachspeak, Simmons hasn’t started or played more than 20 minutes since the trade deadline following the Kevin Durant aftermath. Simmons owns just two games of 10+ points when he’s played 20 minutes or less this season.
There are many possible Simmons outcomes across the next 24 games, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was eventually phased out sooner than later. We’ll find out more on Friday – or maybe we won’t! Simmons is questionable with a (likely phantom) injury. It’s clear that Simmons is more of a problem than a producer and the Nets finally realize it. Hot take: He doesn’t play another game this season.
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Cameron Johnson Over 13.5 Points
Old doors close and new ones open, right? Something like that. Enough of Simmons and onto the future! Johnson is evolving into an exciting two-way pro. No doubt the Nets want to see what kind of young nucleus they can re-brand around. Johnson will be in the center of those conversations. He played three games for Brooklyn since the deadline, covering this number in two of them, while hoisting double-digit shot attempts in all of them.
The speculation of Brooklyn beginning to condense its rotation this evening gives Johnson even more minutes’ upside. Chicago ranks 27th in opponent 3-pointers made per game, while Johnson averages 6.5 attempts in games he’s played 20+ minutes in this season. In fact, Johnson has launched an average of eight per contest during his new tenure with Brooklyn. RotoGrinders has Johnson projected for 15.81 points. It may not seem like a big discrepancy, but it is in the projections/handicapping world.
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 14.5 Points
Smith should continue to benefit from the departure of Eric Gordon, in addition to Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. already being ruled out for Friday’s game. Smith averages 12 points per game this season in 29.9 minutes per game. But using the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, he gets a 3.7% usage bump and averages a shade over four more real points per 36 minutes without those three players on the court.
Being a 10-point underdog is a concern, but with Golden State on a back-to-back, I suppose it’s possible Klay or Draymond rest tonight. Regardless, it should be a fast-paced game environment, which means more possessions to accrue points.
Anthony Edwards Over 30.5 Points
Edwards is even more of an alpha on the Minnesota offense following the trade deadline. He averages right about this number without his former teammates (and the injured Karl-Anthony Towns) on the court this season.
But it’s this projected 240-point game environment against Charlotte that has me liking the over. These are two of the three fastest-paced teams in the league, while Charlotte ranks bottom-third in defensive efficiency. Edwards is a walking bucket, and he’s a strong pick tonight due to his massive usage and this elite matchup.
You can follow Justin Carlucci on Twitter @ThejCarlucci