We’re only two months into this college basketball season and it’s already been a tumultuous ride for Texas, which was ranked No. 2 in the country when it suspended head coach Chris Beard on Dec. 12. It simply hasn’t been the same team since. Things won’t get any easier against a dangerous Iowa State squad hunting for a big-time upset.
Iowa State vs. Texas prediction (8 p.m. ET. ESPN+)
In their first eight games under Beard, the Longhorns ranked fourth in KenPom and T-Rank’s power rating and outscored teams by 23.8 points per game amid a 7-1 start. Six of their nine games since have been decided by 10 or less — which doesn’t include a 116-103 loss to Kansas State when Texas allowed 30 points more than it ever had in 42 previous games under Beard.
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Clearly, this team hasn’t been the same without its defensive-minded coach. The Longhorns ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency before his suspension, and they’ve ranked outside the top 100 in the month without him. That shifts the burden onto this team’s offense, specifically leading scorer Marcus Carr (17.5 PPG), who has carried Texas to a handful of close wins with his late-game shot-making.
Eventually, that luck will run dry, very likely against this Iowa State defense that entered the week ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and first in opponent turnover rate (29.1 percent). The Hawkeyes blasted Baylor two weeks ago and nearly knocked off Kansas on Saturday; I smell an upset brewing on Tuesday.
Iowa State vs. Texas pick
THE PLAY: Iowa State -1.5 (BetMGM)