Last Monday night, Georgia made a mockery of the national championship game, obliterating TCU by 58 points.
That was the annual passing of the college athletics torch, switching from football to basketball. And five days later, college basketball showed how different from football it is.
Of the Associated Press top 25, 11 teams lost on Saturday. There have already been 13 different teams ranked in the top five. Of the six major conferences, the first-place team with the biggest lead is, of all teams, the ACC’s Clemson, picked 11th in the league. Through the first two months of the season, in many ways the overriding storyline has been one of parity. The balance that exists in the sport.
North Carolina, coming off a trip to the national championship game and with four starters back, was expected to be elite. But it has yet to find its form. The same could be said for underwhelming five-loss Duke, which fell to Clemson on Saturday. Kentucky wouldn’t make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today, despite Saturday’s rousing win at No. 5 Tennessee. Gonzaga isn’t the same Gonzaga it was in recent years, struggling to put away teams from the middle of the mediocre West Coast Conference. Top-10 schools Connecticut and Arizona looked like Final Four contenders before league play began, and both have struggled since, finding themselves in the middle of their conferences.
Meanwhile, yes, Alabama and prized freshman wing Brandon Miller have been impressive, particularly after overwhelming Arkansas on the road and embarrassing LSU at home this past week. Houston, the lone team in the country ranked in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, will be tough in March. Kansas, UCLA and Purdue are deep, experienced and have one-seed ability and résumés.
But right now, there isn’t one team that would be a surprise if it were knocked off on the first weekend. No clear-cut Final Four — let alone national championship — favorite. Unlike college football, where it became apparent early on that Georgia was the obvious choice to be the last team standing, basketball has started unpredictably. It is wide open, which is a good thing. It would make for a wild March.
Good Knights
On-court success is now spreading to the recruiting trail for Steve Pikiell and Rutgers. It’s one thing to develop underrated prospects and win as Pikiell has in recent years. But now the Scarlet Knights are becoming a player for major talent. Sunday afternoon, they picked up a verbal commitment from top-10 wing Airious Bailey, who was heavily recruited by Kentucky and Auburn, among others. He follows top-40 wing Gavin Griffiths, the jewel of the 2023 class.
Rutgers’ current team is an interesting mix: top-50 big man Cliff Omoruyi and three-star guards Paul Mulcahy, Cam Spencer and Caleb McConnell. It is only a half-game behind Purdue at the top of the Big Ten, looking like a certain tournament team for the third straight season, which would be a first for Rutgers. Recruits, it seems, are taking notice as Pikiell takes this program to new heights. He’s already accomplished more than was reasonably expected.
The son also rises
The best coaching by a Pitino this season isn’t happening in New Rochelle. It’s way out in New Mexico. That’s where Rick’s son, Richard, has the Lobos in the NCAA Tournament at-large mix with a 4-0 record in Quad 1 and 2 games, and victories over Saint Mary’s, No. 23 San Diego State, and SMU. Meanwhile Iona, his father’s team, is battling injury issues and has lost two of its last three games in the MAAC. Richard has New Mexico on pace for its first 20-win season since 2013-14 in his second year there, after head-coaching stops at FIU and Minnesota. Junior guard Jamal Mashburn Jr., the son of the former Kentucky star Rick once coached, has keyed this successful season, averaging 18.2 points per game and shooting a career-best 39 percent from 3-point range.
Game of the Week
No. 7 UCLA at No. 9 Arizona, Saturday, 2 p.m.
It will be two championship-quality teams going in opposite directions. UCLA has won 12 straight games — 10 by double figures — and sits atop the Pac-12. Arizona has dropped two of its last three, and both of those losses have been lopsided results. But the Wildcats will be home, where they are 9-1. The point guard matchup of Arizona’s Kerr Kriisa against UCLA’s Tyger Campbell is reason enough to tune in.
Sweet 16
A prediction of the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (listed in order):
1. Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
2. UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3. Xavier, Iowa State, TCU, Virginia
4. Connecticut, Kansas State, Miami, Marquette
Stock Watch
Up
Max Abmas
Remember him? The dynamic little guard who led Oral Roberts to the Sweet 16 with upsets of Ohio State and Florida two years ago? Well, he’s back and so are the Golden Eagles, who sit atop the Summit League at 6-0 led by the 6-foot guard from Texas who is averaging over 22 points per game. Abmas has received some help from key Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover, a 7-foot-5 big man who can shoot it from deep, and fellow guard Issac McBride, giving Oral Roberts needed scoring depth.
Clemson
Only one ACC team is still undefeated in conference play, and it’s nobody from Tobacco Road. It isn’t Virginia, either. It is surprising Clemson, which was picked to finish 11th in the league. Which is coming off a dismal 17-16 season. Which lost three of its top five scorers from that team. Beyond impressive. It may be time to rank Clemson after it took down Duke on Saturday afternoon for its fourth Quad 1 win of the season.
Down
Villanova
There was bound to be a step back. Regression was expected. You don’t lose a Hall of Fame coach like Jay Wright and your three best players, Justin Moore, Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, and not lose something. The absence of a true, difference-making point guard, a staple under Wright, has been glaring. Still, it is jarring to see how far Villanova has fallen so far this season under new coach Kype Neptune, having lost five of its last six games. An NCAA Tournament bid is almost dependent at this point on the Wildcats winning the Big East Tournament. They are 0-5 in Quad 1 games, have a NET ranking of 96 and are tied in the loss column with Butler and DePaul.
Connecticut
A few weeks ago, the Huskies looked like a heavy favorite for the coveted No. 1 seed in the East Region, which will be played at Madison Square Garden. But after four losses in five games, UConn is falling fast. The first three setbacks, at Xavier, Providence and Marquette, were understandable. Even expected. Sunday’s was not. Coach Dan Hurley’s team was a 14-point favorite over St. John’s, and was overwhelmed by 11. It is closer to seventh in the Big East than first. After beating Oklahoma State, Alabama, Oregon and Iowa State in the non-conference, regression has arrived in Storrs.
