Wisconsin might not be the most impressive ranked team in the country despite a “good-on-paper” 11-3 start.
But Tuesday night’s line feels a bit disrespectful to the Badgers against a Michigan State team they match up well with.
In eight years under head coach Greg Gard, the formula has been pretty simple for Wisconsin — play sound defense and don’t turn it over. Both have rung true through the first 14 games of this season, too. The Badgers rank in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency and are turning it over on just 14.5 percent of possessions, which ranks in the top 10 nationally.
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Wisconsin vs. Michigan State prediction (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Conversely, Michigan State’s entire approach is predicated on ball movement and generating easy looks — a tough ask against this stingy Wisconsin defense — while its defense rarely forces turnovers, content to play out the full possession most times down the court.
That simply isn’t the recipe for beating the Badgers. According to KenPom, Wisconsin is 10-1 in games with a “pace” (i.e. possessions) of 68 or lower. In three games with a pace higher than that? The Badgers are 1-2, with their lone win coming in overtime against uptempo Iowa.
Michigan State’s ball-control offense and patient defense works against most teams. Still, it’s a brutal combination against a Wisconsin team that’s already proven proficient at winning games against that approach. Bettors may be suitable to fade the Badgers in general relative to their early ranking, but this is a spot worth backing them.
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Wisconsin vs. Michigan State pick
Wisconsin moneyline +112 (FanDuel)