Everyone likes taking home a trophy. And people love betting on it, too.
But the final NFL awards odds tell us that there is still plenty of debate to be had as to who exactly will be doing so. Who is taking home the hardware for the major NFL awards in February? They will be handed out on February 9th at 9 p.m. ET.
Money is still coming in on each award that doesn’t have a presumably decided winner, with prices moving about across the sports betting landscape. For the most part, the favorites have been established, and winners are being predicted by sportsbooks.
But is there still value to bet? Some of these accolades are a foregone conclusion, but many others are up in the air.
Helping me break down each player award is FOX Sports’ esteemed gambling analyst Jason McIntyre. He is the co-host of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, and his podcast, Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre, features tons of gambling-related topics and analysis.
Below we break down the NFL player awards winners and final odds.
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NFL awards odds, liability, and predictions
2023 NFL MVP winner: Patrick Mahomes (likely winner)
Patrick Mahomes has an outside shot at breaking the record for passing yards this season. He is currently -1200 on BetMGM to win the MVP award and probably will win it. McIntyre went back and forth on this one.
“Some value on Jalen Hurts. Mahomes is the clear favorite, but the media has already given him the award before,” McIntyre said.
Always of an essential piece of any award betting – regardless of sport – is knowing what the media wants. And they like narratives.
He continued, “Hurts is a great underdog story. If they blow the Giants out in Week 18, he scores three touchdowns, and Philly looks Super Bowl-ish again, it’ll sway some voters to remember he was the leader for two months.”
At the end of the day, though, numbers are going to speak the loudest here. If Hurts had only missed one game, he’d have a better shot. But Mahomes’ 5,200 yards passing and 40+ touchdowns will speak loudly to the voters.
Patrick Mahomes is the overwhelmingly likely winner of the 2023 NFL MVP award.
2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kenneth Walker?
Frankly, this one is a toss-up, thanks to a rookie quarterback.
Had Brock Purdy been in there since Week 8, he’d be the clear favorite. Unfortunately, he is going to end the season with only six starts. And that’s hard to get behind for an award.
“Brock Purdy probably hasn’t played enough games to qualify, but he’s undeniably been more integral to the 49ers than any other candidate has been to their team. Maybe an exception can be made for Pickett,” McIntyre told The Post.
“Still, the media loves a great story, and it doesn’t get much better than going from Mr. Irrelevant to Offensive Rookie of the Year in the same season.”
If he played more games, this would be a landslide.
But Walker will likely end the season with over 1,000 yards rushing (currently at 936 at the time of writing) and could have double-digit touchdowns this season (nine at the time of writing).
Caesars Sportsbook has taken a ton of action on Walker this season. The biggest bet is $10,080.35 on Walker -150 from an Illinois bettor. Although, another value hunter grabbed Purdy at +1300 in Arizona. He’s now +350.
This one is a toss-up and not worthy of any bets right now. It’s a Purdy vs. Walker award, thanks to Garrett Wilson’s struggles in recent weeks (48 total yards last two weeks).
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2023 NFL Coach of the Year: Brian Daboll +215 (PointsBet)
On NFL Coach of the Year, “If you dig deep into the Eagles, the schedule was extremely favorable,” McIntyre said.
The Eagles had the ninth easiest schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN’s strength of schedule rankings.
He continued, “Sirianni has been exceptional, but Brian Daboll taking a 4-win train wreck to the playoffs without changing the QB – unless you count limiting the turnovers of Daniel Jones – has been nothing short of remarkable.”
Jones’ development this year has been remarkable, indeed. Since 2019, Jones has the sixth most turnovers in the NFL, including leading the league in fumbles in 2019 (18) and 2020 (11). This year, he’s on pace for a career low in both fumbles (6) and interceptions (5).
As for Daboll, McIntyre said, “You missed the best number by a mile (as high as +3000 two weeks ago), but +215 is a better value than some Week 18 games on the board.”
| Top liability | Most bet on | Key data points |
| Dan Campbell | Dan Campbell | “Dan Campbell currently has more than double the number of bets than any other coach (biggest longshot on the board at +4000 but was at +210 on 12/20)” |
| Doug Pederson | Brian Daboll | “We shifted Daboll from +1700 to +215 following the Giants playoff-clinching win this weekend against the Colts” |
| Brian Daboll | Nick Sirianni | “Nick Sirianni got all the way into -400 to win Coach of the year following their week 13 win over the Giants” |
| “Kyle Shanahan got all the way out to +10000 to win Coach of the year at one point (in between weeks 9 and 10)” |
Narrative matters and odds are trending in the direction that this is a two-horse race between Kyle Shanahan and Brian Daboll. Bet the story and the best coaching job, for a team that looked like it might be tanking coming into the season.
Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith (+175, BetMGM)
Why is Christian McCaffrey gaining so much steam on this award? McCaffrey missed plenty of games over the past two seasons – he only played in three and seven games – but none of those injuries were potentially career-threatening.
But for Geno Smith and Saquon Barkley, teams and media pundits were shoveling dirt on their graves the past two seasons.
This should be a two-horse race between Smith and Barkley. Smith was passed on by the entire league, only playing five of a possible 48 games since 2019; he did not see the field once during the 2019 season.
And then we get to Barkley, who missed most of 2020 with a torn ACL and looked like a shell of himself last season. He is finally back to his true self. But Pro Football Focus ranks Smith as the 11th-best quarterback in the NFL, ahead of the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert. This comeback story is different than the rest, so Smith is my pick here.
For what it’s worth, money has been coming in on Smith this week on PointsBet.
“We saw a bunch of action come in on Geno this week, which made us shift his price from +190 to +140,” said Michael Korn of PointsBet. “We’re also seeing the steady flow of action on McCaffrey continue.”
Not sure the action on McCaffrey is warranted, but bettors know that Smith was nearly out of the league after his Giants run, and has revived his career in unbelievable fashion.
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson
This one shouldn’t be very close since Jalen Hurts went down with an injury. Jefferson has a chance to break the receiving record with a huge Week 18. He is closing around -667 and higher on many odds boards.
Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa
Micah Parsons led here for much of the season, but the Cowboys’ defense turned into a dumpster fire at the end of the season, allowing the fifth most points per game in the NFL in the last three games. Bosa is a -1100 favorite on BetMGM and is the clear winner of this one.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner
Aidan Hutchinson made it fun at the end of the season, but Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner is the highest-ranked corner in the NFL on PFF. His odds closed at -1200, and should run away with this one.
