TCU’s storybook season suffered its first bitter chapter with a loss to Kansas State in the Big-12 championship game. Now the Horned Frogs face easily their toughest test yet: a date with undefeated Michigan in the first-ever playoff appearance for Sonny Dykes and co.
The Wolverines were here last year but couldn’t keep up with eventual champion Georgia in the semifinals. Can Jim Harbaugh’s group counter that loss with a convincing win in its return to the College Football Playoff?
Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which kicks off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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Michigan vs. TCU (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) pick
Michigan -7.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Michigan vs. TCU (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) prediction and analysis
Everyone loves a great story, and there’s no denying that TCU’s inclusion in the College Football Playoff qualifies as such. At one point, the Horned Frogs won eight straight games by 10 or fewer points – which included a handful of spirited fourth-quarter comebacks – to post a perfect 12-0 record before falling to Kansas State in the Big-12 final.
Stringing together close wins is rarely the hallmark of a future champion, though. And there’s a reason that, even with some late action toward TCU, this line hasn’t dipped below a full touchdown: the Horned Frogs aren’t actually winning this game.
That isn’t meant to be disrespectful to TCU, which authored one of its best seasons in school history and is clearly one of the best teams in the country. In their first season under Dykes, the Horned Frogs erased the stink of last year’s 5-7 campaign to win their first 12 games and rank sixth in SP+ following its conference title loss.
But then there’s Michigan, which ranked second in SP+ and Football Outsiders’ F+ and just about any other advanced metric you can find. The Wolverines didn’t play with their food, either: they outscored teams by 26.7 points per game – the best mark in the county, even surpassing top-seeded Georgia (26.4) – and won 10 of their 13 games by at least 20 points.
That includes the single-best win by any team this season: a 22-point rout of Ohio State for Michigan’s first win in Ohio Stadium since 2000. It was just the fourth time since 2012 that the Buckeyes had lost at home, boasting a 71-3 record to that point, and none had come against a conference opponent. None came by more than 15 points, either.
That changed when J.J. McCarthy (263 yards, 3 TDs) and this Wolverines offense rolled into town, harassing Ohio State with explosive play after explosive play while simultaneously ending C.J Stroud’s Heisman bid on the other side. It was a perfect showcase for this balanced Michigan squad, which ranks sixth in scoring offense (40.1 PPG) – just a tick behind TCU (40.3 PPG) – and fourth in scoring defense (13.4 PPG).
Perhaps the biggest concern for the Horned Frogs will be stopping the Wolverines’ vaunted rushing attack, which ranks fifth in yards per game (243) and third in yards per carry (5.6) and tore up the Buckeyes’ front seven with star rusher Blake Corum (knee) on the sidelines. Conversely, TCU’s undersized defense – a product of living almost exclusively in a 3-3-5 front – ranks outside the top 60 by both metrics and gave up 200 rushing yards to Kansas State in its last contest.
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The Horned Frogs’ defense simply doesn’t have the might to trade blows for 60 minutes with Michigan’s offensive line, which might be the best in the entire country. And while quarterback Max Duggan was a borderline Heisman Trophy candidate during the year, I’m skeptical that he can make the throws downfield to challenge this swarming Wolverines front.
All season long, TCU made a living on winning in close games, often with inspired comebacks in the final minutes. Michigan rarely let opponents hang around long enough to break a sweat, and I won’t be surprised if this one is all but decided before the fourth quarter.
Michigan vs. TCU (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) odds (via BetMGM)
- Michigan -7.5 (-110), moneyline -300
- TCU +7.5 (-110), moneyline +240
- O/U 58 (-110)