Dolphins vs. Bills predictions: Picks for a likely weather game in Buffalo

Our NFL betting writer offers his best betting picks and predictions for the matchup between the Dolphins and Bills scheduled for Saturday in Orchard Park, NY, at 8:15 p.m. ET on NFL Network.

The AFC-leading Bills have won four straight games and can clinch a playoff spot in tonight’s cold, snowy encounter with Miami. The Dolphins won the first meeting 21-19 in Week 3 when the temperature was 89 degrees at kickoff in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Dolphins vs Bills picks

• Bills to cover -7 spread @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Under 43.5 total points to be scored @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Tua Tagovailoa to pass for fewer than 242.5 yards @ -131 via Caesars Sportsbook

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Dolphins vs Bills predictions and analysis

The Dolphins are playing their third straight road game and have lost the first two. It doesn’t seem like a good time for Miami to be playing in heavy snow against a team it had lost to seven straight times before the late September triumph.

Bills -7

First of all, nobody likes to play in really cold weather. But it certainly is worse for teams that play in Florida or California to travel into arctic-like conditions in mid-December.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel says he will address it head-on with his players — good luck, coach — but from the moment the Miami players step off the airplane, there will be one prevailing thought: It is really, really cold in Buffalo.

The Bills not only have weather on their side, but they also want to avenge that early-season loss. A victory would also further Buffalo’s bid for home-field advantage in the postseason — which would mean more cold-weather games.

The Bills are hot, and the Dolphins are not. Pretty simple here. Take the Bills to cover the spread against the warm-weather team.

Pick: Bills to cover -7 spread

Under 43.5 total points

Though Buffalo is on a nice winning streak, the offense was lagging in last week’s 20-12 home win over the New York Jets.

The Bills totaled a season-low 232 yards and quarterback Josh Allen threw for a season-worst 147 yards. Tight end Dawson Knox vowed the club won’t be held down again but let’s see what happens if the football is heavy and slick during a night-time contest.
Allen passed for 400 yards and two touchdowns against Miami in Week 3, and Buffalo couldn’t even reach 20 points.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins scored 17 points in each of their consecutive losses, and both those games were played in the warmth of California.
Conditions are always a factor this time of the year in the East and we see a Saturday night of struggles. Going with the under is your way to riches.

Pick: Under 43.5 total points to be scored

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Tua Tagovailoa under 242.5 yards

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa passed for just 145 yards in last weekend’s loss to the Chargers, completing a meager 35.7 percent of his throws. He has completed just 45.9 percent of his passes over the past two games.

He insisted this week that the cold will have no affect on him but a January contest last season against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville might be worth studying. You see, it was a dreary cold and rainy day and Tagovailoa completed just 47.4 percent of his passes, was intercepted once, fumbled three times (losing one) and the Dolphins were routed 34-3.

Tua is biased about himself but we are objective. There is no reason to believe Tagovailoa will have a big game against the Bills. It is more likely he struggles and has another low yardage output like last week.

Pick: Tua Tagovailoa to throw for fewer than 242.5 yards

Dolphins vs. Bills odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Total Points 43.5	Team	Spread	Moneyline
Over -110	Dolphins	(+7.0) -110	+260
Under -110	Bills	(-7.0) -110	-335