Saturday is a big sports day and that includes the best college basketball slate of the season, capped off with a Top 10 duel between Arizona and Tennessee at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
This matchup features strength vs. strength. Based on KenPom ratings, Arizona ranks first in offensive efficiency, while Tennessee ranks first in defensive efficiency. However, it’s Tennessee’s offense vs. Arizona’s defense where we find an edge.
Arizona vs. Tennessee (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) prediction: Arizona money line (-142, FanDuel)
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Tennessee struggles to shoot the basketball, ranking 279th in effective field goal percentage and 286th in two-point field goal percentage. Where the Vols excel is getting to the foul line. Tennessee ranks ninth in free-throw attempt rate, according to Haslametrics. While Arizona isn’t dominant defensively, the Wildcats do a good job of not fouling much, ranking 34th in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
If Tennessee isn’t getting to the free-throw line much, it will struggle to keep up with a dynamic Arizona offense that ranks first in effective field goal percentage, first in two-point field goal percentage, and 23rd in 3-point field goal percentage.
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Arizona also has an edge with its big front line. The Wildcats rank 13th in height with Tennessee coming in at 177th. The Vols are a dominant offensive rebounding team but Arizona is one of the few squads that can match Tennessee on the boards, limiting second-chance opportunities. The Wildcats rank fifth in defensive second-chance conversion percentage.
Beating the Wildcats on their home floor has been a tall order the last two seasons where Arizona is a perfect 22-0. Look for this to be a highly entertaining game but Arizona holds enough key advantages for me to back them on Saturday.