The best time of the college football season — and maybe the entire sports calendar — is finally upon us, with bowl season kicking off in paradise with the Bahamas Bowl on Friday.
That’s one of just 42 bowl games scheduled all the way through the national championship in early January, with at least one bowl game every non-Sunday through the rest of December.
That’s a dizzying amount of football to bet on between teams that often have little history between them. Fear not, as we’ve got you covered with five key tips to consider before placing your bets this bowl season:
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College Football Bowl Games key stats and betting tips
Motivation matters
This is tough to handicap, but it’s fairly easy to see with the naked eye: Some teams just don’t want to be there.
Bowl season has clearly lost its pageantry over the years with the advent of the playoff and commercialization of the sport, which means that a trip to the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, or Famous Idaho Potato Bowl just doesn’t mean what it used to. That leaves much of the motivation to these schools and players to set their own goals and ambitions.
Historically, teams coming off a terrible season (0-3 wins) have performed much better in bowl season than, say, a playoff contender that got tripped up late in the year. That makes teams like Kansas and Connecticut interesting plays this bowl season, while playoff hopefuls USC and Alabama may have a tougher time getting up for an exhibition.
Coaches reign supreme
Head coaches already have an outsized impact on college football in just about every way, and bowl season is no exception: Some coaches shine in these moments, while others simply don’t.
The current poster child of bowl success is Kyle Whittingham, who has guided Utah to a 12-1 record straight up and a 10-3 record against the spread in bowl season across his 22 seasons at the helm. And what about Georgia coach Kirby Smart (6-2 ATS), whose postseason success stands in stark contrast to that of opposing coach Ryan Day (1-3 ATS) in his time at Ohio State?
Know your personnel
With motivation dwindling like an unguarded flame, we’ve seen a rash of players sit out bowl season in recent years, which often means a team earning a spot in a marquee matchup without the players that got it there.
The most recent high-profile example was Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett bowing out of last year’s Peach Bowl, which saw his team score a season-low 21 points after averaging 43 points in the regular season. We’ll see it again this year with NFL hopefuls and transfer candidates alike sitting out their team’s exhibition finale, so be sure to check the latest news on who’s actually suiting up before placing your wagers.’
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Check coaching carousel
Just like players sitting out, coaches often take new jobs ahead of bowl season, which can significantly affect a team’s preparedness or their adherence to what got them to bowl season in the first place. That extends all the way down the coaching staff, too, with coordinators as likely to skip town as head coaches.
Consider how that might affect a matchup like the one in the Holiday Bowl, which profiles as an Over-bettor’s dream with high-flying Oregon and North Carolina squaring off. With both offensive coordinators already committed to new jobs in 2023, though, the Under might be worth a second look.
Beware the underdog
Underdogs have been cash cows in bowl season for years now, no matter how you slice it. Since 2005, they’ve covered 51 percent of the time and won outright a ridiculous 36 percent of the time — much higher than the roughly 25 percent win rate during the regular season.
Double-digit ’dogs have been even better, netting close to a 40 percent ROI over the past couple of decades. We’ll see that trend play out right away with Friday’s bowl season kickoff, which sees Miami (Ohio) as a massive underdog versus UAB despite both teams limping to a 6-6 record to punch their ticket into the postseason parade.
