At the halfway point in the NFL season, we’re staring down just as much chaos as we had after the first few weeks of the season.
Last week alone, the Bills lost outright to the division-rival Jets; the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime despite completing five passes all game, and the Patriots beat the Colts so badly that Indianapolis fired its coach and hired a replacement with zero coaching experience at the college or professional level. How’s that for a wild week?
The Week 10 slate looks a bit more “normal” at a glance, with 11 home favorites at BetMGM as of Monday. But if this season has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. Here are the odds for this week and the games we’re targeting early on:
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NFL Week 10 betting odds, point spreads (via BetMGM)
| Falcons (-3) @ Panthers |
| Seahawks @ Buccaneers (-2.5) |
| Vikings @ Bills (-7.5) |
| Lions @ Bears (-3) |
| Broncos @ Titans (-3) |
| Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5) |
| Browns @ Dolphins (-4) |
| Texans @ Giants (-6.5) |
| Saints (-2.5) @ Steelers |
| Colts @ Raiders (-6) |
| Cowboys (-5.5) @ Packers |
| Cardinals @ Rams (-3) |
| Chargers @ 49ers (-7) |
| Commanders @ Eagles (-10.5) |
Seahawks +2.5 @ Buccaneers
I was as skeptical as the next guy about the Seahawks entering the year, but they’ve been routinely cashing against public expectation all year long. I don’t see that changing this week.
Geno Smith has been brilliant at the helm of the NFL’s fourth-ranked scoring offense (26.8 PPG), joining Tua Tagovailoa as the only quarterback with at least 15 touchdowns and four or fewer interceptions. He also ranks fourth in QBR (68.1) and sixth in passing yards (2,199) and yards per attempt (7.8), proving that he’s more than just a dink-and-dunk passer in Seattle’s new-look offense.
The same can’t be said for this year’s version of Tom Brady, who ranks 27th in yards per attempt (6.4) and has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in an incredible eight of his nine starts this year. These Buccaneers simply aren’t the title contenders we thought they’d be, especially with myriad injuries on both sides of the ball, so don’t be surprised if the ‘Hawks pull an outright upset in Munich.
Vikings +7.5 @ Bills
This line feels destined to settle on the key number of 7, if not cross over it, after what we saw from the Bills in last week’s loss to the Jets.
Yes, this is still likely the best team in the NFL, but it’s one that has been vulnerable to wild swings in play over the last three seasons across Josh Allen’s ascension to superstardom. He’s coming off arguably his two worst games of the season and clearly wasn’t right last week, when he threw two interceptions and finished without a touchdown for the first time all year.
He enters this week with a lingering elbow injury that threatens to completely upend this line should it sideline him for Sunday’s contest. Even if it doesn’t, the Vikings deserve more respect than this after a 7-1 start to the season – which is quietly the second-best record in the league ahead of even the Bills’ 6-2 mark.
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Raiders -6 vs. Colts
There’s no doubt this opening spread is inflated by the dysfunction surrounding the Colts, who fired head coach Frank Reich on Monday and replaced him with former All-Pro center Jeff Saturday. I’m betting it, anyway, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a flood of money on the home favorites carries this line to 7 or higher.
Even without Monday’s news, Indianapolis still enters this week ranked dead last in DVOA after another lifeless showing last week against the Patriots – marking the Colts’ second loss by 20-plus points and their fourth loss by at least seven points in their last eight games. Sophomore quarterback Sam Ehlinger (34.2 QBR) hasn’t been the answer thus far, and Jonathan Taylor’s lingering ankle injury leaves this offense without any answers.
That was before the team fired its only coach on the roster with any play-calling experience, leaving Saturday to construct a staff on short notice behind a head coach without any experience above the high-school level. The Raiders have been average at best this year, but that’s definitively better than the mess left in Indianapolis.