After taking two of three games on the road, the Houston Astros are now just one victory away from winning their second-ever World Series. Oddsmakers have the Astros priced as -550 favorites to lift the trophy ahead of Saturday’s Game 6, while the Phillies are currently sitting as +450 outsiders.
The good news for the Phillies is that they’ve set their rotation up so that their two aces, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, will start Games 6 and 7, respectively.
Wheeler and the Phillies are +126 underdogs in Houston on Saturday. First pitch will be around 8:00 p.m. ET on Fox.
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Phillies vs. Astros prediction
Wheeler endured his first rough outing of the postseason in Game 2, allowing five runs — four earned — on five hits and three walks in five innings of work. It ended a stretch of brilliance from Wheeler that saw the 32-year-old log four quality starts in a row. In that span, Wheeler allowed five earned runs on 10 hits and three walks while striking out 25 batters, so seeing him come undone in Game 2 does make you wonder if it was just an outlier start, or if he’s running out of gas.
Nonetheless, the big-picture outlook for Wheeler remains quite strong. In 30.1 innings of work in the playoffs, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.67 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and has held hitters to a .151 batting average. Wheeler will need every bit of that effectiveness on Saturday, as he’ll likely have a very thin margin for error against Framber Valdez.
The ground ball king of the MLB, Valdez has been lights out in the postseason. The 28-year-old southpaw has posted a 1.42 ERA and 2.24 xFIP in 19 innings of work and isn’t just relying on inducing ground balls to get out.
Valdez is still putting the ball on the dirt — his 65.9% ground ball rate in the postseason is right inline with the 66.5% mark he threw up in the regular season — but he’s also logged a 32.4% strikeout rate in his three appearances in the playoffs. That is a big jump from the 23.5% K-rate he logged during the regular season.
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It would be fair to expect Valdez’s strikeout numbers to dip over the long-term, but we’re talking about one start against a swing-happy lineup, so there’s every chance we see the native of the Dominican Republic continue to rack up K’s on Saturday night.
Valdez’s ability to keep the ball on the ground makes him a really tough pitcher to touch up, which was proven by his 25-straight quality start streak during the regular season. Valdez has yet to allow more than two runs in an outing this postseason.
Saturday’s pitching matchup has every chance of being a classic and both bullpens will be rested after a day off. A play on the under, even if it dips to 6.5, makes sense.
World Series Game 6 pick:
Astros vs. Phillies under 7 runs (-115, PointsBet)