Weird stuff tends to happen in the last matchweek of the Champions League group stage. There are some all-in spots where two teams have everything to play for. There are others where neither team has anything at stake. And then there’s situations like the one we’ll see on Wednesday at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea have already won Group E, they’re playing their tenth match since Oct. 1 and they have a huge match with first-place Arsenal looming on Sunday. Oh, and the World Cup starts in three weeks. The Blues have absolutely nothing to gain from playing Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday.
Zagreb, meanwhile, need a win at Stamford Bridge to have a chance to finish in third-place and qualify for the Europa League. That would be a huge deal for a team like Zagreb, who play in the Croatian first division.
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Dinamo Zagreb vs. Chelsea prediction
While the situational spot plays a big part in this handicap, it isn’t the only signal pointing to a potential upset in London. Despite only losing once in ten matches since Graham Potter took over as manager, Chelsea have looked far from convincing under their new coach. That has been especially true of late.
Chelsea have a 2-2-1 (W-D-L) record over their last five matches, but they have an even goal differential and a -1.1 expected goal differential in that span. The Blues are also coming off a 4-1 loss away to Brighton — Potter’s former team — in which they were played off the park.
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A lot of Chelsea’s struggles stem from a leaky defense, which is a bit surprising given the state of Brighton’s defense this season under Potter. Over their last three matches Chelsea have allowed six goals on 4.0 expected (1.33 xGA per match), which suggests that Dinamo Zagreb could find some success going forward on Wednesday.
Some of Chelsea’s defensive issues are due to injuries and fatigue, but neither of those problems will be fixed by Wednesday.
With nothing at stake and a whopper of a match on the schedule on Sunday, there’s very little reason to believe that Potter will play anybody of importance in this match. Meanwhile, Zagreb will be smelling blood after they upset the Blues in Croatia a couple of months ago.
Chelsea vs. Dinamo Zagreb pick
Dinamo Zagreb +850 (FanDuel)